Extreme Fear. Is the 2026 bull market over? 😱

BTC is down ~45% from its October 2025 ATH, the Fear & Greed Index is back in Extreme Fear, and spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted their longest outflow streak of the year.

Sounds bearish. But a 45% correction is relatively normal for Bitcoin. In 2021, BTC dropped ~78% from its peak. Earlier cycles saw drawdowns of 80%+.

What's more interesting is what's happening beneath the surface.

BTC dominance has slipped from ~60% to ~58%, while the Altcoin Season Index has risen from lows around 30 to 49. Historically, an altseason requires an index value of 75+ and a much deeper decline in BTC dominance – but this suggests that capital is beginning to rotate.

Privacy coins keep leading the cycle, and select AI and L1 names are catching bids even as BTC sells off.
Strength is selective, not broad – which looks more like rotation than capitulation.

So what do you think: has the bear market already begun, or are we simply in an accumulation phase?