🎯 How I really estimate work

I read How I estimate work as a staff software engineer and pulled the core ideas:

1️⃣ Accurate estimates are impossible for most work
Most of work involves unknowns that you can’t predict until you explore them. Only tiny, well-understood tasks are easy to estimate.

2️⃣ Estimation isn’t for engineers, it’s for managers
Managers often come with a timeline in mind first. Engineering isn’t really choosing the estimate. It’s choosing what work can be done within that estimate.

3️⃣ Unknowns dominate known work
Known tasks are predictable. Uncharted code paths and interactions take most of the time and those you can’t numerically nail down in advance.

4️⃣ Start with context, not code
Before reading any sources, figure out what timeline is expected, how urgent the project is, and what trade-offs are acceptable.

5️⃣ Don’t ask how long will it take? ask what fits in this time?

6️⃣ Focus on unknowns, not on known tasks

7️⃣ Give plans with trade-offs, not flat numbers
Instead of 4 weeks, present options like:
- full solution (risky)
- simplified approach (quicker)
- help from another team (less risk)

8️⃣ Sometimes you must say this is impossible

Summary:
Estimating isn’t about predicting time. It’s about mapping technical options to business expectations under uncertainty.
Good estimation = understanding what you don’t know and managing the risks.

#til