“AGI is the ability to figure things out.”

“A human who can figure things out has some baseline knowledge, the ability to reason over that knowledge, and the ability to iterate their way to the answer. 

An AI that can figure things out has some baseline knowledge (pre-training), the ability to reason over that knowledge (inference-time compute), and the ability to iterate its way to the answer (long-horizon agents).

The first ingredient (knowledge / pre-training) is what fueled the original ChatGPT moment in 2022. The second (reasoning / inference-time compute) came with the release of o1 in late 2024. The third (iteration / long-horizon agents) came in the last few weeks with Claude Code and other coding agents crossing a capability threshold.”

"If there’s one exponential curve to bet on, it’s the performance of long-horizon agents. METR has been meticulously tracking AI’s ability to complete long-horizon tasks. The rate of progress is exponential, doubling every ~7 months. If we trace out the exponential, agents should be able to work reliably to complete tasks that take human experts a full day by 2028, a full year by 2034, and a full century by 2037. "

Source: https://sequoiacap.com/article/2026-this-is-agi/