According to expert estimates, Russia could earn $4.5 billion in revenue from the diesel deal.

However, not all of this revenue would contribute to Russia’s military spending. Petroleum revenues account for approximately 22% of Russia’s total government budget revenues. Applying that percentage to the $4.5 billion would mean that approximately $990 million could be associated with petroleum-related government revenue. Since only about 32% of Russia’s federal budget is spent on defense, applying that percentage to the $990 million would mean approximately $316.8 million could correspond to defense spending. Compared with Russia’s estimated $180 billion total defense budget, this represents just 0.18%.

The global diesel market is also much larger than this deal. Annual global diesel consumption is estimated at around 200 million tonnes. The deal’s contribution would therefore represent only 2.4% of annual global consumption, as the deal involves 4.8 million tonnes of diesel. At this scale, the deal alone is unlikely to have a significant impact on global diesel shortages. It would help, but it can't fulfill all of the demand.

What this deal archived best; is dividing the political theater within the Epstein coalition.

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