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Robin Monotti Robin Monotti @robinmg · 67.4K subscribers
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime

🇮🇱🇪🇸 Did Israel weaponize illegal immigration against Spain over its pro-Palestine politics?
 
In the past two years, PM Pedro Sanchez’s government has:

➡️ recognized Palestine

➡️ recalled Spain’s ambassador to Israel over Gaza, and labeled Israel a “genocidal state”

➡️ positioned Spain as the leader of an Israel-skeptic bloc of European powers

➡️ blocked the transit of US arms to Israel via its bases, and denied the Epstein coalition the right to use Morón Air Base and Naval Station Rota for operations against Iran

➡️ lobbied to have Israel banned from Eurovision and sporting federations

➡️ introduced a comprehensive, permanent arms embargo on Israel, and banned imports from occupied areas
 
Fast forward to the present, and Spain’s autonomous North African coastal city of Ceuta is being overrun by illegal immigrants, triggering violent clashes with police and up to two dozen drowning deaths. Up to 60k people have flooded into the territory of 83.5k residents virtually overnight.
 
The immediate trigger was a Spanish Supreme Court ruling barring “hot returns” for migrants intercepted at sea.

But there may be a bigger political game at play. US and Israeli interest in fomenting a crisis targeting Sanchez using Morocco as a human battering ram:

👉 The Moroccan government is one of the most reliably pro-US and pro-Israel states in the Arab world, signing the Abraham Accords in 2020 and inking a series of intel and defense cooperation deals with Israel. The US and Israel have Rabat’s claims to Western Sahara (a former Spanish colony)

👉 The Ceuta crisis follows the tried-and-true playbook of recent European migrant crises, with migrants comprising “predominantly young men,” and social media footage showing dump trucks and flatbeds full pouring out near the Spanish border, under the cover of local traffic cops

👉 Spain is going to the polls in 2027. Israel and the US may hope the crisis can help topple the Sanchez government
 
The Great(er) Game: battle for Gibraltar?
 
🔴 Rubio-ally Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart declared in April that Ceuta and Melilla are “Moroccan territory.” Pro-Israel think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute and the Middle East Forum launched a coordinated campaign during the same period saying Israel should help Morocco seize these areas

🔴 Lawmakers led by Lindsey Graham urged relocating US bases in Spain to “a country that we can actually rely on” to ‘punish’ Madrid

🔴 Ceuta is just 30km from the Strait of Gibraltar – vital to US and Israeli interests in the Mediterranean amid an intensifying, global war for control of the world’s strategic maritime chokepoints. Gibraltar’s share? 10-20% of global freight traffic, 100-120k vessels a year

🔴 Israel and Morocco inked a defense pact in January under which Tel Aviv would provide over 50% of Rabat’s air defenses, plus offensive guided munitions, rocketry and drones. Morocco also provides training grounds and troops to implement Trump’s Gaza “peace” deal.

🔴 Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon could not hide his delight over Spain’s Ceuta troubles, suggesting Madrid no longer has any right to “lecture Israel” amid the crisis at its African “colonial enclave.”
 
In April, Netanyahu explicitly threatened that Spain and other countries “waging a diplomatic war” against Israel would “pay an immediate price.”

Fast forward three months and presto – instant migrant crisis. Coincidence? 🤔

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