S&P 500 in a President’s First Year

How the S&P 500 did in the calendar year each president took office, from George H. W. Bush in 1989 to Donald Trump’s return in 2025.

Nine of ten inauguration years ended in the green. The average year-one price return was about 17%, or roughly 19.5% with dividends reinvested. Only 2001 lost money (−13%), as the dot-com bust kept unwinding and 9/11 hit markets.

Both extremes were inherited: 2001 started with the dot-com crash already underway, and 2009’s +23% was a rebound from the 2008 crisis low. Clinton’s 1997 was the best year on the list at +31%, and Trump’s 2025 came in at +16%, just under the average.

🔗 Historical S&P 500 data

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