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Ray Dalio Ray Dalio @raydalio · 1.5K subscribers
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Ray Dalio My Reflections on July 4th as America Turns 250 I love everything about the 4th of July, and the 250th anniversary is especially great for me because I am joining with family and friends for a reading of the Declaration of Independence, a BBQ, and fireworks.…
The Hard-Left: It is hard to believe that having an already ineffective government run by idealistic, impractical leftists—who haven't built, run, or made anything productive (look at their track records)—will work well.
The Hard-Right: It is equally hard to believe in a government run by self-interested, private-market capitalists who have shown little inclination to provide necessities to the majority so they can be prosperous members of the system.
A big fight between these two sides—especially if it leads to the abandonment of the rules (for example, not accepting election results or trying to politically "assassinate the king" by impeaching and charging President Trump with corruption)—will only increase the conflict. There is an uncomfortably high probability of that happening.
Two Paths Forward
There are only two possible, albeit long-shot, paths forward to resolve this:
A Strong Centrist Leader: Because fighting and abandoning compromise will produce much more harm than good, the US needs a strong leader of the middle to bring people together and make the necessary, unpopular reforms that make the system work for everyone.
The AI & Leadership Miracle: A scenario where a) AI becomes hugely productivity-enhancing without producing a economic bubble/bust, and b) there is good enough political leadership to distribute those AI-based gains to the satisfaction of most people.
Hopefully, capable Americans will rise above their individual interests and work together to run things well for most people. Since there has never been more income, wealth, and intelligence in the world, this certainly is a possibility.
In closing, I want to reiterate that I'm not political. I'm just a hyper-realistic guy who has spent most of my life distinguishing what works and what doesn't in order to bet on the winners and avoid the losers, and I’m passing along how I see things with the hope that it's of some use.
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