shortage](https://preview.redd.it/2luzzqxn45uh1.jpg?width=1017&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d54fa1cc5c30e05a413ad7cec8b3c4db2fadf660)



[\*Assumes all modeled openings are realized and usable new entrants fill them. Previously qualified entrants\/re-entrants or different market paths can meet the remainder. This is not a vacancy or shortage estimate. Usable shares are hypothetical; no observed central participation rate is asserted.](https://preview.redd.it/c3ml2j8p45uh1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47e95b1ebe20d9ed80815054e207c4ff63d60487)

So what is the takeaway from all of this? From what we can forecast, becoming an airline pilot is still a viable career choice, but new pilots should expect to enter a competitive hiring environment. The hiring boom of 2022-2023 is not likely to emerge again in the next 10 years. 92% of openings in the realistic scenario come from replacing pilots who are leaving the commercial aviation world, not from the creation of new positions. Retirement numbers in the next ten years will heavily dictate hiring demand from the airlines. Airlines will continue to need new pilots even while their fleets are not rapidly expanding.

Keep in mind that these numbers are projected occupational openings, not class dates or first-officer vacancies. The central scenario estimates in the next decade that roughly 116,400 ATP pilots will be created, versus 113,000 openings. This means that a near one to one ration can exist before considering any other factor. Right now a large pool of commercial pilots are in time building, so expect a heightened competitive market for the next few years.

We cannot with 100% certainty establish that a shortage or surplus exists now or will exist in the future. There is significant uncertainty in the supply estimates, as world events, economic factors, or other unknown forces can and will change how many pilots will become available in the future. What we can determine is that simply reaching 1500 hours is not going to to distinguish you from another applicant.

The central forecast anticipates sustained hiring needs throughout the next decade. So if you are in training now, there is little reason to abandon training, but do not assume that a shortage will make employment easy. The supply and demand are close, and airlines will continue to be selective unless a severe shortage occurs. This means that the *quality* of your experience will matter just as much as the hours do. Getting any turbine time you can, becoming exceedingly proficient in instrument skills, professional references, and a clean training record will be crucial to stand out.

If you are interested in reading the full pdf: [here is the link with all sources](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XetHYGGBh4AiltU4I-wDhIkdUjN4-jAm/view?usp=sharing)

Tl:dr; There should be opportunities, but be prepared to compete for them

EDIT: I have seen all the comments about the pessimistic outlook estimates. To clarify, this model is not built on the assumption that a major disruption will occur in the next ten years. Economic instability, international politics, wars, pandemics etc will have major consequences for the market that would be impossible to predict when and for how long they would occur. The pessimistic scenario assumes zero/limited “growth” in the hiring market, it does NOT assume that the hiring market will shrink.

If we extrapolate the data, we can predict that in a situation where the market shrinks, the qualified pool of pilots will grow exponentially for a time, and then pause as less people enter the aviation sector. While we can assume this to be a case scenario, attempting to fold it into a ten year forecast would make any prediction unreliable and unhelpful. Currently there are no signs that the aviation industry will face a significant downturn, as passenger numbers have continued to climb, along with aircraft manufacturing. And even though new ATP certifications have slowed, they remain in steady pace.

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