Stock Market Bets Suggest Foreknowledge Of 7 October Attack

Unusual short selling activity allowed investors to profit from the Hamas attack on Israel, just as investors profited by placing unusual bets before the 9/11 attacks

Unknown investors placed unusually large bets anticipating a drop in Israel’s stock market just days before 7 October, indicating foreknowledge of the surprise Hamas attack many now view as “Israel’s 9/11,” a new report from two prominent US legal scholars shows.

Robert J. Jackson, Jr. of New York University and Joshua Mitts of Columbia University issued a report on 3 December documenting a significant spike in short selling in the principal Israeli-company ETF days before 7 October.

Short selling allows investors to sell shares borrowed from other investors, in hopes of repurchasing the shares at lower price in the future. The investor then returns the borrowed shares and profits from the difference in price.

The report states that, “days before the attack, traders appeared to anticipate the events to come: on October 2, short interest in the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) suddenly, and significantly, spiked. And just before the attack, short selling of Israeli securities on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange increased dramatically.”

The report states further that, “The short selling that day far exceeded the short selling that occurred during numerous other periods of crisis, including the recession following the financial crisis, the 2014 Israel-Gaza war, and the COVID19 pandemic.”

The report’s findings suggest the traders placing these bets were informed about the coming attacks and successfully profited from them.

“For one Israeli company alone, 4.43 million new shares sold short over the September 14 to October 5 period yielded profits (or approximates avoided losses) of 3.2 billion NIS (roughly $860 million) on that additional short selling,” the report explained further.

Although the scholars observed no increase in shorting of Israeli companies on US stock exchanges, they did identify “a sharp and unusual increase, just before the attacks, in trading in risky short-dated options on these companies expiring just after the attacks.”...

Many analysts have struggled to explain how Israel’s vaunted intelligence services failed to predict the surprise Hamas attack, in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and 240 taken captive to Gaza.

Many suggest that the decision to launch the attack was a tightly guarded secret, and that the leader of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammad Deif, did not notify even members of the Hamas political bureau living outside Gaza...

Similar activity in the options markets before 11 September 2001 suggests investor foreknowledge of the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and Pentagon in Washington, D.C. as well.

Much of the attention focused on the trading in the days leading up to 11 September in options written on American Airlines (AMR) and United Airlines (UAL), the two companies whose planes were hijacked and crashed by the terrorists.

University of Chicago finance professor George Constantinides said that the option market trading to profit from a fall in the stock price of both AMR and UAL was “so striking that it’s hard to attribute it to chance. So something is definitely going on.”

🔗SOURCE ➡️ The Cradle

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