What Comes First, a Rafah Invasion or a Netanyahu Ousting?

Facing domestic and international pressure for Israel’s US-backed Gaza assault, the Biden administration appears poised to throw Netanyahu under the proverbial bus.

In Gaza, a metaphorical “hostage” scenario has emerged, centered on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political future is being bartered at a steep political price.

Although not physically detained, Netanyahu has been shackled by a complex situation since the 7 October Operation Al-Aqsa Flood...

Internationally, Israel’s carefully constructed image has entered pariah status, as accusations of “genocide,” “war crimes,” and “apartheid” fly liberally around global capital buildings and in mass street protests. This is a language that signals a strategic defeat for Tel Aviv – not at all the ‘military victory‘ Netanyahu had promised his constituents and allies.

Resignations and repercussions

After seven months of grossly disproportionate aggression against the mainly civilian, densely-populated Gaza, the Israeli premier’s prospects of deriving strategic benefits from further military action are dwindling.

Even his attempts to pivot to political achievements – like ceasefire deals and grand bargains – are fraught with considerable risks for his shaky government coalition.

Today, Netanyahu’s threat to invade Rafah, the southernmost area of Gaza where over a million displaced Palestinians seek relief, could either further entrench him in crisis or precipitate his political downfall.

The bad news keeps rolling in. Last week’s resignation of Israel’s head of Military Intelligence, Aharon Haleva, over failures related to 7 October, signals a broader national crisis about to unfold. Reports from Yedioth Ahronoth suggest that additional senior military and security officials are also expected to resign.

“The domino effect of the resignation of the head of military intelligence may soon occur, including the Chief of Staff as well,” the Hebrew daily reported.

Despite its enthusiasm for Palestinian bloodshed, Israeli public opinion, as reflected in various polls over recent months, overwhelmingly holds Netanyahu and his administration accountable for the now obvious failures of the war. This sentiment is compounded by the inability of the once-touted “invincible army” to secure the release of any of the Israeli captives held in Gaza by the Palestinian resistance.

Israeli writer and historian Yuval Harari argues in a recent Haaretz article that “the ruinous policy of the Netanyahu government following October 7 has placed Israel in existential danger.”

With US elections around the corner, President Joe Biden is seeking to strike the posture of a “peacemaker” who averted a greater catastrophe in Gaza – redeeming himself for Washington’s unabashed military and political support for genocide by forcing through a fragile truce in Rafah.

Tel Aviv’s Gaza war has left bruises all over the Biden administration and its western allies. They now calculate that a Rafah invasion will not produce results different from Israel’s northern and central Gaza invasions.

Collision course with the US

As the electoral countdown begins in the United States, Biden’s already low poll ratings are further eroded by images of mass student protests at prestigious American universities across the country – almost 80 campuses at the time of writing... Continue Reading⤵️

🔗SOURCE ➡️ The Cradle

Related: 5/4 — WSJ / Times of Israel: Israel Said To Give Hamas Week Ultimatum To Choose Between Hostage Deal, Rafah Invasion

5/2 — There’s "Widespread" Belief Among US Officials That Israel Can’t Beat Hamas

4/30 — Israel’s Finance Minister [Smotrich] Calls for "Total Annihilation" of Rafah, Other Cities in Gaza

Netanyahu Vows to Invade Rafah "With or Without" a Hostage Deal

4/28 — ❗️ Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:

If you cancel the Rafah invasion, your government will not have the authority to continue.

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