EXCLUSIVE | Senior Iranian source to The Cradle: Tehran distrusts Washington, warns of new military escalation

A senior Iranian source told The Cradle that Tehran remains deeply skeptical of the ongoing indirect negotiations with Washington, believing any potential agreement may amount only to a “temporary de-escalation” serving US domestic interests, particularly economic pressures and fuel prices, rather than a long-term strategic shift.

Iran does not believe any possible agreement with the United States would represent a final or permanent end to the war, the official said, adding that Tehran believes President Donald Trump is facing major internal pressure tied to the US economy and gasoline prices. Iran also views the current framework of any “limited agreement” as serving Washington more than Iranian interests, which is why it has so far resisted pressure to accept temporary understandings.

Iranian assessments indicate that the United States and Israel may still seek an opportunity to launch a new military strike against Iran later this autumn, even if a final agreement is reached. The official also revealed growing divisions inside Iran, with some political figures supporting a temporary deal to “wait out” the remainder of Trump’s term, while others strongly oppose that approach, calling it a “flawed strategic assumption” given that nearly two years remain before the next US presidential election.

The negotiations are effectively based on a 14-point framework, and reports about such a proposal are “largely accurate,” according to the source. The main disputes center on two issues: Iran’s insistence that any agreement must include a comprehensive end to the war and military escalation across all fronts, especially Lebanon, and the issue of frozen Iranian assets. Netanyahu is reportedly pressuring Trump not to tie any agreement with Iran to an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, while Tehran believes nearly one million people remain displaced inside Lebanon, increasing pressure on Iran not to make concessions related to the Lebanese file.

Tehran also insists that the first step in any understanding with Washington must involve releasing part of Iran’s frozen assets as a practical test of US intentions. Washington recently prevented Qatar from transferring part of those funds to Russia before they were to be moved onward to Iran through Russian channels, according to the official. Iranian officials reportedly view this as further proof that the United States remains unwilling to take meaningful confidence-building measures during the negotiations.