❗️Washington races to contain oil shock as Iran threatens Hormuz in response to US–Israeli war

As the US and Israel press their war against Iran, Tehran’s response is increasingly centered on the global oil market. According to a report from Bloomberg, by threatening to choke the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic is attempting to impose a punishing economic cost on US President Donald Trump, calculating that surging gasoline prices in the US could erode domestic support for an expanding war of choice against a sovereign state.

Roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow strait, about 20 million barrels per day, making it the most critical energy chokepoint on earth. Washington and its Gulf allies are scrambling for alternatives. Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline, built decades ago precisely to bypass Hormuz in the event of confrontation with Iran, can redirect up to 5 million barrels daily from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, while the UAE operates a smaller line to the Gulf of Oman capable of carrying about 1.5 million barrels per day.

Oil prices have already surged above $100 a barrel following the first waves of strikes on Iranian territory. The White House is now betting that Saudi and Emirati bypass routes can temporarily cushion the shock long enough for Washington to force a political outcome on Tehran. But the calculation rests on fragile assumptions that Gulf infrastructure will remain intact, that tankers can operate safely in a war zone, and that the US-Israeli campaign can end quickly before the economic blowback spirals beyond Washington’s control.