Peter Diamandis in his mail list:
In 1999 at Stanford conference (after first Ray Kurzweil’s predictions on singularity) 150 people voted when AI will achieve human-level intelligence, results:
- 20% felt it would never happen
- 80% - would happen, but not by 2029. The majority thought it would take at least 100 years (so, in 2100)
Now:
- Kurzweil expects that will reach till 2029
- Elon Musk that till 2025
- Online forecasting platform Metaculus conducted in 2021 the poll of AI experts, their consensus was that by 2042
Post #471
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