$ZEC has a near binary scenario around Ironwood.

Bullish: if the Orchard → Ironwood migration continues smoothly with no rejected withdrawals, it strengthens the case that the exploit was never used.

Bearish: if the turnstile starts blocking withdrawals while legitimate Orchard funds are still waiting to migrate, it could mean counterfeit ZEC exited first, leaving the deficit for everyone else.

Until one of these two signals appears, we won’t know which way the asset is headed.

https://x.com/obitocrypto/status/2082115239517069775