Kate Smith's Rent

Collectible Numbers are 1,000 days old! 🎉

Today, the first NFT collection of numbers celebrates its anniversary. Exactly 1000 days ago, on December 6, 2022, the Numbers section appeared on the Fragment.com website.

The starting price was 9 TON ($18)

Then the historical milestones were as follows:
February 26, 2023: 47 TON ($100);
August 11, 2023: 380 TON ($475);
August 14, 2024: 139 TON ($1,000).
June 8, 2025: 997 TON ($3,121)

The current floor price is 706 TON ($2,200).

There's the Lindy effect: if something exists for example, for 5 years, then it will exist for the next 5 years. Bitcoin has been around for over 16 years since 2008, and there is no doubt that it will still be around 16 years from now, in 2041. The same can be said about this collection in 1,000 days: until May 28, 2028, it will definitely exist as it is now, with no new additional features and no new numbers.

Image source: JpegMillionaire

#roadto10k #info #link

Numbers have broken through a new ATH!

The previous ATH was 380 TON on August 10, 2023. After that, the numbers went into correction at 265 TON, and with the strong growth of the TON price, they fell even lower (150 TON in November 2023, 90 TON in March 2024).

This time, the price returned to the previous maximum, overcame its previous ATH, consolidated above and was at the peak of 997 TON on June 8, 2025. Now we expect the Floor Price to fall to 200-300 TON with the next strong growth of the TON price (up to $12-15+).

On long-term timeframes, we observe the following picture: cheap TON — numbers break through their ATH, expensive TON — numbers roll back in price in TON, then gradually recover and update their historical maximum with the next fall of the TON price. This once again proves the huge potential of numbers as a hedge asset.

With each cycle, the price of the numbers returns to the initial level in TON, but due to the fact that the TON price in $ is higher this time, we get a multiplicative increase in the price of numbers in $.

For example: May 12, 2023: Floor Price 100 TON, TON $1.95 = $195;
March 25, 2024: Floor Price 100 TON, TON $5 = $500

Now imagine, Oct...Dec 2025, Floor Price 250 TON, TON $10 = $2,500

Such cycles as cheap TON in $—expensive numbers in TON, expensive TON in $—cheap numbers in TON are the market maker's strategy to gradually increase the price of numbers in $, shake out weak hands and create successful stories of earnings by advanced investors, which only fuel the feeling of FOMO and create excellent opportunities for marketing.

We have already described one of this mechanics in this post. We will write more about this strategy in general in the following posts.

Also, another breakthrough of the Numbers ATH in TON may be one of the indicators of the best time to buy TON.

#roadto10k

Banned Numbers

Recently, Telegram has started freezing accounts. And we are seeing a not very pleasant situation. The ban on a number is given after violating Telegram rules, when the account gets frozen. The number is banned, but fragment.com does not have the "Restricted" tag. This harms the market, because the buyer, spending $2,600, gets a "dummy" without a utility and is disappointed in this collection.

The ban is lifted over time, but you have to wait up to several months.

I hope that TON/Telegram representatives who read my channel will pay attention to this misunderstanding and fix it. They, more than anyone, are interested in $10,000 per number. Perhaps it makes sense to somehow additionally highlight banned numbers so as not to set up potential new users.

#roadto10k

It's been a little over 2 years since the pump of numbers in August 2023. This is a very interesting story, the analysis of which gives a lot of food for thought even after 2 years. There is so much material that we decided to split it into several posts.

Previously, we have already written about walls. Today we're going to talk about one of the big number holders responsible for the pump of numbers in May and August 2023.

The legendary rqgq wallet, which is known by probably all active players of the Anonymous numbers market.

In May 2023, he helped pump the Floor price from 90 to 186 TON, and in August 2023 from 180 to 361 TON.
In total, he bought about 1,300 numbers.

The community (including yours truly Kate Smith) thought the sudden rise on the numbers was happening on its own. How naive we were at the time!

But what happened next? He started building walls and then sold all his numbers! 🤷‍♀️ 🧐🤣

After noticing transactions transferring numbers to one of the active chat participants, the fog of war dissipated and the rqgq wallet was no longer legendary.

The moral of the story is this. No one is interested in your earnings. Only yourself. Think. Educate yourself.

#roadto10k

These are Nikolay and Pavel Durov. Fortunately, nothing happened to them today. It's not their birthday. It's just that people need to be remembered not only when something happens to them.

TON + Telegram are probably in the Top 20 most ambitious technological developments of the 21st century, so let's wish these people only good luck!

#roadto10k

Why is the HOLD HODL! strategy so hard to follow?

You've probably heard your crypto friend complaining about not buying Bitcoin at $10-100-1000, and now it's worth $20,000...$50,000 or even more. Why aren't there any people among your friends who bought Bitcoin at $1 and are still holding it? There is a good answer in a humorous style: "If you bought bitcoin for $50, you would sell it for $100".

Money has a tendency to get spent. You probably, if you bought bitcoin for $1, also would not wait for the end of mining in 2140 (although there mathematical models show the price of $23,415,647,039.29 for 1 BTC in 2140!)

Today we want to recommend you the movie Dumb Money. We hope it will help you to think a little bit about the HODL strategy. And for us, a small but steadily increasing profit over a distance is better than getting a large sum at once.

Everything is similar with numbers. If you bought 1,000 dollars worth of numbers in December 2022 at 9 ton (~$18) (55 numbers), you would now have 55*769=42,295 TON (85x increase) or 55*$2,600=$143,000 (144x increase).

It's like a long game of chess where you have 4 years for each move (cycles in cryptocurrency). Patience and hard work will overcome everything. Patience to everyone! HODL!

#roadto10k #info

We are so sorry 😽. There's not enough content to post once a week. So we're diluting our posts with this cool meme. See you in a week!

#roadto10k

What is a restriction (spam block) and why is it so important for the entire market?

A spam block is a sanction from Telegram that is imposed on an account if the account sends unwanted messages to strangers or receives many complaints about its messages from chats. It can be either temporary or permanent.

A temporary spam block is given for a certain time during initial blocking (an hour, day, week, etc.). Accounts with a Premium subscription and using 888 numbers have a reduced time of initial restrictions (minutes). A permanent spam block is issued for multiple violations, regardless of whether the account has a Premium subscription and/or an 888 number. With such a block on fragment.com, the number gets a "Restricted" label (example in the first attached screenshot) and is traded below the Floor price. If you create an account on such a number or link it to an existing account, you will not be able to write to people who have not added you to their contact list, write in public chats, create public chats and invite people to them, etc. The blocking period is unlimited (example in the second attached screenshot).

Similar to cars, you get a car, but with an empty gas tank. You can only drive such a car by pushing it. Therefore, these restrictions have a significant impact on the rental market and numbers in general.

4,564 numbers (3.34% of the supply) are currently restricted by Telegram due to multiple reports of spam-related activity.

A permanent spam block can be removed by sending complaints to @spambot, but we're afraid this function is limited. There is information that after 10 spam block removals, the number gets a lifetime restriction, which can never be removed.

It is for the above reasons that this issue is a priority for Kate Smith's Rent. We welcome end-users and long-term clients who rent numbers for good causes. We offer a 21% discount on yearly rentals.

#roadto10k #link

TON grows, numbers fall, TON falls, numbers grow. Have you heard this in chats too?

Why do people think so and is it really so? Let's figure it out.

In order to understand the relationship between the price of numbers in TON and the TON price in $, we will use the concept of correlation, where the value 1 is a perfect positive correlation (the value A changes strictly proportionally to the value B), -1 is a perfect negative correlation (the value A changes inversely proportionally to the value B) and the value 0, which corresponds to the absence of correlation.

Correlation does not show the dependence of the value A on B and vice versa, but shows that changes in the values ​​of one or more of these values ​​​​accompany a systematic change in the values ​​​​of another value.

In the first attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in TON (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).

In the second attached screenshot you can see Floor Price in $ (blue graph), correlation of Floor Price in $ to TON price in $ (orange graph), and correlation of Floor Price in TON to TON price in $ (red graph).

As you can see, over short periods of time (spring-summer 2023) there was indeed a negative correlation between TON price in $ and Floor Price (both in $ and TON) up to a value of 0.9, which corresponds to a very strong connection (not dependence). But, starting in the autumn of 2023, both correlations began to grow. Now the correlation value of the Floor Price in TON to the TON price in $ (red graph) is -0.03, which corresponds to a very weak negative connection (not dependence), and the correlation graph of the Floor Price in $ to the TON price in $ (orange graph) is 0.44, which corresponds to a moderate positive connection (not dependence), in this case, indirectly shows that the numbers are growing in $ and in TON (stronger in $) regardless of the TON price.

Why is there such a difference? Because over a long period of time, numbers grow in TON, and the fact that TON grows in $ is already a pleasant bonus.

Then why do so many people stubbornly claim: TON grows, numbers fall, TON falls, numbers grow? Because most people think in very short frames (no more than 3 months). Talking about a very strong dependence of Floor-TON Price acts as a psychological defense for those who had bought numbers for 380 TON and sold them during the correction for 250 TON or, even worse, for 100 TON in the spring of 2024. Also, people also use such thoughts to protect themselves from an overwhelming feeling of FOMO when they did not buy numbers for 9 TON in December 2022.

A similar situation is observed this time. People who bought numbers in June 2025 on the hype for 800-900+ TON will be forced to sell numbers for 200-300 TON this autumn-winter in order to get into another hype project (TON DNS?).

Mathematics is always ahead of emotions and subjectivity.

#roadto10k

Have you ever thought that VIP numbers multiply your profit faster than Random Numbers?

All numbers are first-class assets. But as in any market there are gradations by asset class.

VIP numbers were initially the most expensive. And as you know, faith, patience and hard work are always rewarded.

For example, the number +888 0998 9898 was bought on June 16, 2023 for 1,788 TON ($2,431.68), and sold on February 15, 2025 for 4,900 TON ($19,012). The profit will be 7.81x. If the seller bought and sold a random number at the same time, the profit would be only $1,202.8/$240.72 = 5x.

The number +888 0807 0605 was bought in December 2022 for 194 TON. The floor was 12 TON then. For this amount, you could buy 194/12 = 16 Randoms.

So how much can you sell such a number for now?
Now the floor is 450 TON. 450 * 16 = 7,200 TON
But if you add an exclusivity factor of at least 1.5, then this number should cost 7,200 * 1.5 = 10,800 TON.

By selling this number now, you can buy 10,800/450 = 24 Randoms, although initially you could buy only 16 Randoms for the same money. This is how the VIP number market works. The difference between VIP and Randoms is that for a successful transaction (regarding VIP numbers) you need a lot of patience, like when fishing or hunting. We are all hunters by nature, so blockchain is no exception. But you can put up Random numbers on sale for floor price, and they will be bought within an hour.

+888 0888 8888 was minted for 500 TON (~56 Randoms) and was sold for 45,000 TON (~95 Randoms).

+888 0808 0808 was minted for 100 TON (~11 Randoms) and was sold for 13,533 TON (588 Randoms) and will be sold for 2,000-3,000 randoms in the future.

+888 0998 9898 and +888 0807 0605 are the good numbers, but far from the best. And what difference in the number of randoms can such monsters as +888 8 888, +888 0880 0880 or +888 0300 0300 make? Write your thoughts in the comments.

P.S. Thanks to @subbookkeeper for helping me write this article.

#roadto10k

Reminder
As of tomorrow, the minimum monthly rental price for an 888 number will be $80.
——————
涨价提醒
明天我们最低租金该成为80u。

#attention

⬆️ Prices Increasing!

The minimum price of 888 numbers from the last increase (June 9, 2025) increased from $2,222 to $2,500. Accordingly, we are increasing the minimum rental price to $80 per month, starting from July 1, 2025. The price increase will apply to both new rentals and renewals.

The price of more expensive numbers will also increase.

Be sure to rent at the old prices up to and including June 30, 2025!
—————————-
⬆️ 我们涨价格了！

从上次涨价我们888号码的最低价从2222u 涨到了2500u， 因此，我们最低租金成为80u（一个月，新价格将从7月1日起生效。)，从这个日期开始租新号和租号续订都按照新的价格来算。

其他珍稀电话号码价格表也会有变化的。

抓紧时间6月30号之前按照之前的价格表租到我们电话号码！
——————-
Prices for Random Numbers (from July 1st)/普通号(地板号) 价格（7月1日起）
1 month/一个月 80 USDT
2 months/两个月 160 152 USDT
3 months/三个月 240 224 USDT
6 months/六个月 480 425 USDT
1 year/一年 960 754 USDT

#attention

Correct answer: Nikolai Durov.

An unexpected result. More than half of the people answered correctly 😳

Everyone knows Pavel Durov, but what about Nikolay? Judging by the poll results, there are still people who don't know about him. But he is one of the key developers of Telegram and wrote the TON Blockchain Whitepaper.

Nikolay Durov was born on November 21, 1980 in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg). He is the elder brother of Pavel Durov. During his school years he was considered a prodigy, winning many international Math and Informatics Olympiads. He graduated from St. Petersburg State University, where he received the title of Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences in 2005. In 2007 he received his PhD at the University of Bonn.

From 2006 to 2014, Nikolay Durov helped his brother create the VKontakte social network, and was the company's Lead Developer. Since 2013, he has been a key developer of Telegram. In 2021, he is the author of the TON Whitepaper.

We also know from a recent interview with Pavel Durov that his brother is working on artificial intelligence. And we have no doubt that this AI will outshine all the current AIs

The technical advantages that VKontakte, Telegram and TON have are largely due to Nikolai Durov personally.

Hopefully, today you learned a little more about the creator of the blockchain, which will still show itself in this bull market (late 2025-early 2026). But the most interesting is yet to come. TON has the potential to bypass not only Solana, but also Ethereum in the next crypto cycle (until the end of 2029)! The potential of TON simply blows away any EVM blockchain. Save this message and see you in 2029!

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Durov

#roadto10k

Why is the increase in the number of holders (especially holders of 1 number) important?

The more numbers are in different hands, the:
1. More difficult for a certain person to manipulate the price;
2. System becomes more complex, diverse and uncertain (entropy increases);
3. Competition between traders and rental services is increasing;
4. More Realized Capitalization;
5. More TVL.
6. When the number of holders reaches 70-80% (from 95,597 to 109,253 holders), we may see decrease in listing ratio and a positive supply shock.

As of June 2025, over the entire existence of the number collection, the increase in the number of all holders was on average 588 wallets per month (29,730 → 47,133), and holders of 1 number was 490 (18,279 → 32,770).

And in the case of holders of only 1 number, we can conditionally assume that such numbers are removed from the market and will have practically no effect on the price in the future. Such people buy numbers for themselves for use and sell them in very rare cases.

#roadto10k