Bitcoin cycle 4 peaked at $126,000 on October 6, 2025.

Returns measured halving to peak across four cycles: +9,200%, +2,900%, +700%, +97%. The compression is consistent and structural, roughly 70 to 85 percent less per cycle.

NUPL at 28.6, Loss Supply Deviation at 1.40, Stablecoin Cycle Index at 47 percent cash. Three independent frameworks, same distribution signature.

Full analysis, invalidation triggers, and where the bottom most likely lands:
https://noodlesresearch.com/research/btc-peaked-126k-what-comes-next