Meth Inhaler

Important dynamics to know ahead of $SPCX trading open:

- 4.20% float with 70bps greenshoe — total supply d1 4.9% (most likely)
- $1 move is $13b — $13.19b after greenshoe
- 20% sold to retail investors, 10% to foreign investors
- Elon owns 40.5% and is locked 1y
- 20% cliff unlocked in mid August (if stock trades 30% above IPO then 30% or $379b of value)
- $5b Blackrock order, can assume at least 2 other large orders from gulf states hence 20% of the circulating supply is locked roughly — bringing greenshoe adjusted circulating float to ~4.06%
- No short selling allowed from all the insiders/SPV participants, no hedging flow
- Fast entry in Nasdaq-100 is in 15 days (guaranteed $7b buying pressure, up to $23b across all trackers)
- No S&P 500 fast track
- SPCX options will be live Tuesday 16th
- No margin trading allowed first days on brokerages
- Limit only orders pre open
- No overnight market on the first day
- Trading halt bounds are 20% of the first 15min and last 25min of the trading day, otherwise 10%

Have not participated into the IPO, will simply to look for weakness in $SPCX either later in the day or next week and go for shorts on $RDW and $ASTS. We don't anticipate to see weakness in the first 2 weeks.
Overall should be constructive for $NQ as new margin is added to brokerages.

Correct on NYSE’s pick

However I’ve somewhat changed my opinion on my super bullish stance from last year. The company is not as well run as and it appears it’s more of an exit scam (polling some Tradfi friends). Doesn’t take away the fact that there is no exposure for RWAs or TOKENIZE EVERYTHING [especially with Blackrock’s support]

Keeping an eye on the listing, consensus is easier to form in Tradfi than crypto — for circle it was easy and simple — there’s only one proxy vehicule to express stablecoins

There currently is no tokenization play

https://x.com/deitaone/status/2042277337962553513?s=46

IPO cheaper than expected—robots narrative wave incoming

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/unitree-plans-shanghai-ipo-testing-interest-humanoid-robots-2026-03-20/

Yesterday NYSE announced the opening of a new digital platform to enable 24/7 operations using blockchain based tech for post-trade systems (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260119300589/en/The-New-York-Stock-Exchange-Develops-Tokenized-Securities-Platform)

They mention partnering with BNY and Citi for settlements, for cause these banks have been at the forefront of the tokenization narrative -- NYSE is looking for partners to create this they are bringing the exchange side, Citi and BNY are bringing clearing and settlement that leaves TOKENISATION up for grabs

The competitive landscape for Tokenised Equities

Ondo (lol) - $461m
xStocks - $195m
Securitize - $149m
WisdomTree - $23m
Superstate - $19m

For UStb

Securitize - $1.8b (mostly BUILD)
Ondo - $1.6b (split between USDY and OUSG)
Circle - $1.5b (USDYC)
Franklin Templeton - $880m (BENJI)
...
Superstate - $786m (USTB)

Speculating on which of those will partner with NYSE:>>
Writing off ONDO as most of their TVL is defi native and have never interacted with tradfi institutions
xStocks is allowing people to trade stocks onchain and is integrated with specific exchanges, unlikely it goes deeper in the system
SuperState has built a solid product but most of their revenue doens't come tokenisation and "AUM fees" rather from blockchain incentives -- because they are defi native -- unlikely that they get integrated in the greater tradfi realm
Securitize, my choice. Backed by BlackRock they are the only ones to have piloted tokenisation with CITI and BNY -- Fink has been hamering CNBC with the tokenisaiton narrative: increasingly likely they throw their full force behind Securitize as their defacto securitisation arm (Partnership with BNY for STAC https://x.com/Securitize/status/1983565885181673934?s=20) (Testing tokenised deposits with CITI https://x.com/Securitize/status/1783894138326339948?s=20)

Disscusing private / public blockchain
> I view it as a defacto choice to go with public blockchain as NYSE is not partnering with any bank to distribute this you want to be able to allow anyone to plug into this // not just using the Citi Private blockchain.
> What does work is a public but permissioned network which is what all the RWA providers have built towards.

The only way to speculate on tokenization, a narrative that TradFi is interested about atm is Coinbase. Didn't mention it above as their securitisation focuses on BASE Chain and being traded on their exchange similar to xStocks and Kraken.

$SECZ goes live in H1 2026 through SPAC - at a ~$1.7b valuation I think it is severely mispriced => Wouldn't we all just want to long Tether_USDT_mcap.p?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFSVD4l8vvo

Very much a fan of all Robotics companies

China/Robots barbell is not going away

- $UNITREE CCP robots, will buy at IPO (~$8B val) / target Q4 IPO [US investors have been kept off investment rounds]
- Robot Strategy Kang Robot SPV (I did that deal)
- Figure Ai largest us robot company ($40Bval)
- Apptronik cheapest humanoid company (~~1.5B)

Robots will be everywhere (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-industrial-robots-installed#explore-the-data)

On tokenization

Securitize will IPO at $1.25b pre which to me screams cheap in comps to Circle’s massive premium (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/10/28/-blackrock-linked-tokenization-firm-securitize-to-go-public-via-spac-deal.html)

BalckRock invested $47m, they are essentially their securitization arm ($BUIDL blackrock’s onchain t bills fund)

Betting on AUM instead of price seems like a very kosher way of expressing bullishness on the gnomes of Zurich

Thinking outloud here:

The market telegraphed every large meta trade this year, first were the crypto infra companies IPOs, then came the large yield farms ICO and the DATs. Point being the largest capital return trades, non edge based, all gave you plenty of time to commit and to allocate in the runner up in case you missed the first one.

I now see the likely last inning of this larger meta. Crypto token companies IPOs. I’ve personally always found it hard to distinguish between equity and tokens in crypto on the venture side.

Ripple and Binance have both equity and tokens and are also both set to IPO next year. Galaxy just closed on a Ripple SPV and the amount of recent Binance equity acquisition indicate q1 IPOs which coincides with what I heard internally. This is the next large trade. I anticipate coin to rally much sharper than equity going into the announcement of token conversion mechanisms.

Note that Tether is also set to IPO next year

Thanks for playing.

I don’t think the large coin thesis goes away any time soon. The market is looking for good longs crime and fundamental based—exchange tokens are the only exception because of their flows

Attention begets attention

Alt dispersion will mechanically trigger pocket outperformance on on large ICO/IDO (see demand for XPL) at fair valuations. Pantera raising a $1b fund, Dragonfly $650m - the capital list goes on but size caps don't.

The only 3 trades you should take this year

- $PUMP Universally hated and seen as an extraction coin, $1b ICO with at least 60% done in private placement at $4b FDV. The protocol is still generates $1.2m fees a day in a “down trench market” - I anticipate the trenches to heat up once participants get their airdrop + token TGEs. At $4b it’s ridiculously undervalued—comp it to Hyperliquid. 25% buyback liquid funds are pilling up in the private placement round (https://x.com/playrisk/status/1935421652206059974)
buyback = good coin

- $WLFI The president’s white label coin, want a decision to be made go through buying WLFI. Strategic sales + an upcoming public company treasury pipe deal to be announced. CZ freed and becoming an advisor, note that Binance is incubating and helping distribute USD1 natively. Comps to Circle + presidential premium (https://x.com/playrisk/status/1884182661863989317)

- $UNIT Tokenisation proxy in crypto, revenues used to buy back HYPE, the only protocol other than CEXs likely to get any interest for it’s trad-fi underlyings - spot liquidity has been constrained - cheap option nonetheless if you farm

I have written off all the memes in my book except one-- I'm 80% in cash

D.O.G.E post-election was one of the clearest trades (800% in 7 days), it’s now down 80% from the highs, and 1 Elon tweet sent it 50% without anyone on the timeline picking it up (https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1870894953838109073), suggesting passive interest (which often leads to FOMO when the trade starts running)

Trump's inauguration is on the 20th
Narratives usually emerge 2 weeks before (Jan 6th)

GalaxyResearch predicted D.O.G.E would overtake $DOGE this year due to constant media attention (https://x.com/glxyresearch/status/1872696470224114068)
UNIPCS hasn't shilled D.O.G.E in a thread in a long time - while it's uncertain I believe this new information will compel him to ("BonkGuy was right" meme) - Kaito mindshare shows disinterest, it’s a pretty good proxy for positioning

A confirmed future event + known timeline + high probability of impact + market inattention creates outperformers

Still holding spot - sold options 3.3k (luckily)

Have been deploying into ETH denominated memecoins while the pendulum was swinging towards memes on Solana

CHILLGUY did 800m volume onchain in the last 24h sign that the market on sol needs to cool down

Ethereum:
- $DOGE Unipcs pick, anticipated a puke right after the announcement of Elon and GCR joining DogeGov (https://x.com/playrisk/status/1858882443962470662?s=46)
- $LMEOW GCR coin, Unipcs pick, CT lingo, 2y years old, multiple 90% drawdowns Murad thesis, team quite active at events promoting the culture
- $SHRUB Tesla mascot, Cobie + kang confluence (https://x.com/playrisk/status/1858877300420305240?s=46)

Base:
- $KEYCAT series meme (3rd KEYCAT living today), nerdy culture (https://x.com/playrisk/status/1856846648455876666?s=46)
- $MIGGLE the other cat coin
- $LUM AI agent

Coinbase has proven to be much more willing to list memecoins playing on deregulation, it’s now only a matter of time before they decide to list tokens from their own ecosystem (would be a GTO).

All big BTC pairs tend to bottom on massive inflexion points and have been seen drifting the rest of the time

Concerning ETH regulations are now clear, BlackRock and virtually every other bank / AM is or has been looking into tokenised securities or digital twins for the last 2 years, most liquid funds have underperformed BCGI and need a catchup play with strong fundamentals [blobs revenue + yield] their L2 bags need rotation