Shipping and diplomatic sources caution against undue optimism: even sustained high volumes would take weeks to reach refineries, followed by processing and distribution, while diesel prices remain under acute pressure as refining capacity has been reduced (partly taken offline by military action in the Gulf, with Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russia’s energy sector also cited as a significant factor).
➡️ Record charter rates are increasingly driving shipowners to accommodate both Iranian and US transit requirements; people closely involved in the trade said this often involves coordination with Iranian authorities — “Many people are co-ordinating their shipments with the Iranian authorities, because if you don’t, you get hit” — which Tehran views as recognition of its right to regulate Hormuz through the recently created PGSA.
Yet almost all vessels, including those notifying the PGSA, are reportedly using the US-protected southern route along Oman’s coast because owners “fear American sanctions”. Kpler disputes the extent of PGSA coordination, with Senior analyst Subasic assessing:
“a substantial part of the current export system is instead based on bypass pipelines, US-supported transit arrangements, and shuttle tankers crossing Hormuz before conducting ship-to-ship transfers”.
➡️ The US has achieved tactical effects in Hormuz through a surveillance-and-intervention system, largely using uncrewed drones. Strategically, however, the diesel-price surge has upset the apparent US calculation of maintaining the blockade while Arab neighbours increase oil output, while also generating friction with allies as the Trump administration pushed them toward Friday’s decision to use their reserves.
➡️ Negotiators are seeking a sustainable Washington-Tehran arrangement through an “MoU plus”, while Gulf states are pursuing longer-term arrangements for management of the Strait of Hormuz; despite continued anger over Iran’s actions, they acknowledge that geography cannot be changed and that a modus vivendi will be required. With the US midterm elections less than one month away, neither Trump nor Tehran currently wants to yield, but once the polls are over, pressure from Gulf states and oil buyers for a meaningful resumption of diplomacy is expected to build.
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