The M6 Financial Duathlon Competition

In the field of forecasting, accuracy in point and uncertainty prediction have always been critical in assessment. On the other hand, in finance the search for alpha reigns as the most important assessment criterion, where alpha measures the extent to which a strategy, trader or portfolio manager provides consistent excess returns relative to the market or some other benchmark, over a given period of time. Barometers related to the quest for alpha include the yearly “Active/Passive Barometer” from Morningstar, which usually indicates that active, professional investment managers do not beat, on average,
random stock selections.
At the same time, legendary investors like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and George Soros, as well as celebrated firms including Blackstone, Bridgewater Associates, Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw, and many others have achieved phenomenal results over long periods of time, amassing returns impossible to justify by mere chance, and casting doubt among academics and market participants that believe
that long-run alpha is difficult to achieve, and that maxims such as the efficient markets
hypothesis drive the markets.
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M6 competition on financial forecasting !