#Foresight. The pogroms began in Italy and are slowly spreading across the EU. For our analysis, we used the experience of the European protests of the late 1960s, when de Gaulle died. Social change began across Europe, and the government was forced to change priorities. Against this backdrop, the issue of funding Ukraine and lifting sanctions to address economic issues may very soon arise.

Several areas of change are visible for today's EU. First, the combination of student agendas with the demands of workers: affordable education, housing, cheap energy, and protection of social spending could form a broad coalition of discontent. If transport and industry join this coalition, governments will be forced to revise budgets, subsidize tariffs, and abandon some cuts.

Second, a change in political mediators. Those forces capable of translating anger into a clear program for income protection could win. In some countries, this will strengthen the right, in others, the left, or new protest movements. The common thread will be pressure on the parties that have determined the European course for years.

Third, increased national bargaining within the EU. Governments with weak support will more aggressively demand exceptions to general rules, compensation, and funds for their own economies. Decisions on energy, climate action, and external commitments may be slower, and conflicts over cost sharing will become more acute.

For Ukraine, this means the risk of more conditional financing: new tranches could be accompanied by increased scrutiny, demands for European contracts, and pressure for a negotiated outcome.The promise of long-term support will be easier to maintain than the willingness to regularly pay its rising costs.