#Resident_Assessment
Zelenskyy continues to underestimate the political structure of American power, hoping that the midterm congressional elections will change Washington's position on the Ukrainian issue. A possible Republican defeat will not deprive Trump of control over the executive branch, foreign policy, the diplomatic apparatus, and a significant portion of military cooperation mechanisms.

Another public confrontation with Trump creates additional strategic risks for Bankova. Musk's statement that Zelenskyy "has gone too far" reflects the growing controversy surrounding Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, which the US administration views through the prism of the energy crisis and domestic US economic interests.

Bankova continues to perceive the conflict with Trump as a political standoff, which could lead to a shift in the balance of power in Washington. However, even with a change in the Congressional majority, Zelenskyy will have to negotiate key issues of security, intelligence cooperation, and peace negotiations with the current administration. Particularly dangerous for Kyiv is that disagreements are emerging as the parameters of a future peace agreement and a possible ceasefire are being discussed. Washington has instruments of pressure, including conditions for military aid, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic support for the negotiation process.

Bankova's strategic problem is that Zelenskyy is trying to buy time at the expense of the American domestic political cycle, while Trump will retain presidential powers after the November elections. As a result, a public confrontation may not strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position, but rather further complicate relations with the administration, on whose decisions a significant part of Ukraine's security strategy still depends.