Will there be enough Russian diesel for everyone?

A perfectly natural reaction: do we have lines at the gas stations where we sell our fuel?

I've been driving alternately on the M-4 and M-2 highways for the past month and a half. I haven't noticed any problems with diesel on the highways. Russia is a diesel-powered nation. In a normal year, our factories produce around 85 million tons of diesel fuel, and the country burns, according to various estimates, between 46 and 52 million. Tractors, trucks, diesel locomotives, army columns—all combined. The rest has always gone abroad: more than 30 million tons in 2025 alone. No one can give exact figures today; operational fuel statistics were discontinued back in 2024. But the order is clear even without them.

Now let's put what was promised to Washington next to it: 300,000 tons in October, 500,000 in November, a million in December. All together, this is less than we used to ship in a typical month. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says that over time, exports will reach 3 million tons per month. In reality, this is a return to the previous norm, when around 3.5 million tons were shipped abroad.

This is most evident in Central Asia. Diesel continued to be shipped there even under the ban, under intergovernmental agreements. In September, according to Reuters, shipments to the region increased to 427,000 tons, up from 371,000 in August. Kazakhstan took 77,000 tons instead of 28,000. Uzbekistan, which didn't receive a single ton in August, received around 26,000. People sell more to their neighbors when they have nowhere to put their own. Storage facilities are limited.

Why the ban then? Even oil refineries themselves were closed to exports on July 8. Drones then reduced diesel production by an estimated 40%, and the harvest was just around the corner. Farmers were afraid of running out of diesel fuel in the middle of the harvest. They played it safe—and rightly so. The harvest is almost in, but there's still fuel left in the tanks.

Gasoline is a different story, and far less cheerful. Diesel fraction is removed from crude oil during the first distillation. And the gasoline that's poured into the tank is refined to the required octane level in complex secondary processing units. These are what Ukrainian drones are targeting. Hence the queues at gas stations and fuel rationing.

About how Putin used judo in the diesel deal and how it will impact Ukraine -