#Foresight
The war in Yemen could trigger a new global oil crisis, the consequences of which would be particularly painful for Europe and Ukraine. The main threat lies in the possible simultaneous destabilization of two strategic energy arteries: the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb.
If Iran continues to restrict shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis expand their attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, the global market will face the threat of a physical shortage of crude oil. About a fifth of global oil consumption normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea provides a vital supply route between Asia and Europe.

A particular danger is the potential expansion of the war into Saudi territory. Systematic strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities could disrupt refining and export capacity, while simultaneously limiting Riyadh's ability to compensate for the loss of supply from other producers. Three stages of an oil crisis could emerge. The first involves rising insurance rates and shipping costs, which, if severe, could push Brent to $120 per barrel. The second involves prolonged disruptions to exports from the Persian Gulf and a price movement toward $140-150 per barrel. The third, most severe scenario, is possible with the simultaneous blockage of several routes and damage to major oil facilities, which could cause prices to briefly approach $180. These are stress scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.

As a result, Ukraine risks facing dual pressure: the cost of imports and economic maintenance increases, while external financing becomes more politically and fiscally sensitive.

A protracted war in Yemen could trigger a chain reaction with consequences far beyond the Middle East. For the EU, this risks a new industrial and inflationary crisis, while for Ukraine, it will put additional pressure on the fuel market, budget, and economic stability.
If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are simultaneously disrupted, the consequences of such a shock could persist through 2027. This is why further escalation around Yemen is becoming a key risk for the global economy.