#Resident_Assessment
Politico's publication essentially confirms our previous insider information on the sowing season: Ukraine will have to reduce its sowing area by 35-40% if it fails to restore normal agricultural exports. The statement and forecast are being made by Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky, but the reality is much worse, and the sowing season could be reduced by 50-60% due to fuel prices.

Politico's analysis is much more serious than the sowing reduction figure itself. According to Vysotsky, European rail, road, and river routes are currently capable of transporting less than half of the required export volumes, leaving up to 35 million tons of produce remaining within Ukraine. The minister describes the situation as "extremely critical." Kyiv has requested an additional €1.1 billion from the EU to compensate for additional transportation costs, but Poland and Romania are not yet ready to expand the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, and our partners have no intention of providing the funds.

It's important to understand Vysotsky's statement not as an industry-specific forecast. If exports don't recover by spring, farmers won't receive funds from the current harvest and will be physically unable to finance the next crop. The minister himself estimates a potential reduction in crop acreage at 35-40%, and the economic impact could reach 5% of GDP.

This creates a vicious cycle: blocked exports keep the harvest within the country, the lack of sales deprives farmers of working capital, the next planting season is reduced, and Ukraine then experiences a smaller harvest, exports, and foreign exchange earnings.