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Lord Of War Lord Of War @llordofwar · 18K subscribers
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#Resident_Assessment
Our sources believe that Bankova's main problem in its relations with partners today is no longer the reform demands themselves. The Europeans are gradually breaking the mechanism that allowed the Office of the President to formally fulfill obligations for years, receive funding, and then drag out the practical implementation of the necessary changes.

The scheme was quite simple: delay fulfilling the demand as long as possible, push the necessary law through the Rada under threat of delaying the tranche, demonstrate political will to partners, receive the funding, and then transfer the most inconvenient elements of the reform to a regime of endless approvals, bylaws, and personnel decisions.
Now this mechanism is functioning significantly worse. Brussels is tightening its control not only over the decision-making process itself but also over its implementation, with further funding increasingly tied to specific milestones.

According to our sources, this is precisely what is causing the greatest irritation at Bankova. The issue has long since gone beyond the bounds of political sovereignty. The more deeply partners control government spending, procurement, corporate governance, anti-corruption infrastructure, and the distribution of international aid, the less room there is for the familiar system of budget allocation by groups associated with the current government.

A new model is emerging: Ukraine is ready to receive funds, but Kyiv is increasingly less free to independently determine how these funds will be distributed and who will ultimately be the beneficiary of budgetary flows.

Resistance to reforms should not be viewed as a conflict between Zelenskyy and Western institutions, but as a struggle for control over the financial architecture. For those close to the government, the loss of the ability to manage flows could be significantly more painful than the reduction of the next tranche itself.

The main risk for Bankova is that partners are gradually shifting from the demand to "pass the law" to the principle of "show results, then get the money." In this structure, the old method of formally fulfilling obligations ceases to work, and along with it, the financial base of the entire system of influence formed around the Office of the President begins to shrink.
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