Ukraine risks losing domestic steel production by 2027

According to GMK Center forecasts, steel smelting will drop by 39% in 2026 and may fall to zero in 2027. Metallurgical export revenue is expected to decrease by approximately $2.5 billion in 2026 and another $2.5 billion in 2027.

Additional damage includes the need to replace domestic steel with imports, costing roughly $1.5 billion in 2027. The cumulative deterioration of the trade balance compared to 2025 is estimated at $6.5 billion.

Iron ore mining is also predicted to plummet: by 37% in 2026 and a further 55% in 2027. The longer metallurgical capacities remain idle, the more difficult and expensive their subsequent restart will be.