#resident_assessment
Before Putin's speech at Valdai, the Cheka published the main drafts of the Kremlin's demands, which Budanov is trying to reconcile and fit into the framework of the roadmap.

Yesterday, Putin effectively publicly revealed the outlines of a grand bargain on Ukraine, with territory becoming just one element of the future agreement. The main narrative is that Moscow does not view a ceasefire as an independent goal and wants to immediately discuss the political architecture of post-war Ukraine. We have written about this many times: the Kremlin will not agree to a partial ceasefire without a roadmap, which is why the main tracks were announced:

The first parameter is territory. The statement that approximately 11% of the DPR remains under Ukrainian control is intended to demonstrate Moscow's lack of need to rush into a compromise. Russian logic is based on the assumption that continued hostilities will gradually improve the Kremlin's negotiating position, meaning a future agreement could prove more difficult for Kyiv than the current one.

The second parameter is significantly more important: Ukraine's neutral status. Putin deliberately reiterates this thesis simultaneously with his account of Anchorage and the American proposals. This demonstrates that the negotiations are gradually moving beyond the simple formula of "territory in exchange for peace." The discussion focuses on Ukraine's future security system, the presence of Western military structures, and guarantees that the parties will not return to a new war after the pause.

The third parameter is the architecture of the deal itself. Putin confirmed that the American proposals were discussed in Anchorage, and Moscow agreed to some of them, although certain decisions remain difficult for Russia. This is an important marker: the Kremlin is not rejecting the American framework entirely, but is bargaining over its content.

This also explains Moscow's refusal to engage in local ceasefires around oil refineries, shipping, or individual infrastructure facilities. The Kremlin is attempting to tie such agreements to a larger political bargain, since a standalone pause in strikes would change virtually nothing in the strategic balance. As a result, the negotiating track is gradually coming to a halt on three interrelated issues: the legal status of the territories, Ukraine's neutral status, and a long-term security model. It is around these issues, rather than the public discussion of a temporary ceasefire, that the main bargaining will likely take place.