The Fed just delivered its first hike since 2023: +25 bps

The dot plot is the stronger signal: 16 of 18 officials project at least one more hike would be appropriate in 2026. Median 2026 inflation forecasts were also revised up to 3.7% for headline PCE and 3.4% for core PCE.

Next catalysts: jobs, CPI, PCE—and every move in oil.

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