🥊 UFC MAIN EVENT — FORMER CHAMP vs SURGING FINISHER. NEAR PICK'EM.
Belal Muhammad (former champ, on his first-ever 2-fight skid) must win to stay in the title hunt. Gabriel Bonfim (19-1, 4 straight wins) is one win from contender status. Books are split on who's even favorite.
🥊 TALE OF THE TAPE:
🔴 Muhammad — 24-5 · #5 · wrestler · age 37
🔵 Bonfim — 19-1 · #11 · striker · age 28
🔴 MUHAMMAD — LAST 5:
❌ L — Ian Machado Garry (decision)
❌ L — Della Maddalena (lost title, UFC 315)
✅ W — Leon Edwards (won title)
✅ W — Gilbert Burns
✅ W — Sean Brady
(was 10-0 before the skid · never submitted in 30 pro fights)
🔵 BONFIM — LAST 5:
✅ W — Randy Brown (KO)
✅ W — (4-fight win streak active)
✅ W
✅ W
(6-1 in UFC · 13 of 19 wins by submission)
📊 NUMBERS:
🥊 Bonfim: 4.61 sig strikes/min · sub threat
🤼 Muhammad: 3.60 takedowns/15min · elite control
🎯 Odds: Muhammad −122 · Bonfim +102 · Round total 3.5
🎯 As balanced as a main event gets. Too close to call.
✅ YES = Bonfim wins (any method)
❌ NO = Muhammad wins
📍 ufc.com