📌 DID YOU KNOW?

Researchers analyzing Polymarket trades from 2023–2025 found that roughly 3% of traders generated most of the market's predictive power.

Why?

Because the best prediction market traders aren't necessarily experts in politics, sports, or geopolitics.

They're experts at spotting probability mistakes.

To them, every market is just math.

Prediction markets may not be accurate because the crowd is wise.

They may be accurate because a small group of highly informed traders continuously corrects the crowd.

Source: "The Wisdom of the Few: Skilled Traders and Prediction Market Accuracy" (2026)