Gas Prices in Europe Are Soaring (businessinsider.com.pl)

Natural gas prices in Europe keep climbing. On Thursday afternoon, Dutch TTF contracts — the main European benchmark — rose another 3.5%, hitting €74.5 (about 326 zł) per megawatt-hour. That's more than double what they were a year ago, when the same contracts traded for under €32 (136 zł).

The main driver is geopolitical uncertainty over liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the resumption of indirect talks between the US and Iran on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, there's been no progress. The market fears an actual cutback in LNG volumes from the region. Before the recent conflict, roughly 20% of the world's LNG supply passed through Hormuz. Now, even individual tankers from Qatar and the UAE can't offset the risks.

European storage facilities are only about two-thirds full — noticeably below the 80–90% seen during the same period in 2022–2025. Fitch Ratings has already raised its gas price forecasts for this year and next, citing the Iran factor.

For ordinary people, this means sharply higher bills for heating, hot water, and cooking.

Industry is hurting too: gas is a key component in fertilizer production, so food gets more expensive. Bakeries, businesses, and utilities are being forced to raise prices, which further fuels inflation and eats into the real incomes of people across Europe.

As winter approaches, the pressure only builds. Europe is scrambling to fill its storage, but geopolitical risks outweigh the effort. For now, the market is reacting to the fear of a shortage — not to actual supply disruptions.

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