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Venture Capital

Venture Capital

@incubator

The official channel of V3V Ventures. We share updates on our investments, portfolio companies, and fund activities.

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Post #6533 960
“The most important thing in investments is not having a high IQ…The most important thing is realism and discipline.”

“You don’t need to be extraordinarily bright to do well in investments if you are realistic and disciplined.”

Warren Buffett

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Post #6532 1.22K
🇺🇸Tariff Relief Excludes Soybeans

The US and China published tariff cut lists covering $60 billion in trade under a new "30-for-30" deal. China’s 1,600+ item list excludes soybeans, the product the US wanted most.

US soybean exports to China were worth $12.8 billion in 2024. That equals 43% of the $30 billion tariff relief package.

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Post #6531 1.39K
💻️ Nvidia’s Buyback Meets Cash Flow

The board raised Nvidia’s buyback authorization by $150 billion to $235 billion on 28 September, with use expected by January 2028. That implies about $15 billion a month, versus average free cash flow of $11.6 billion a month in the six months to July.

The authorization is permission, not spending, and can be suspended. Nvidia bought $19.7 billion of stock last quarter, or about $6.6 billion a month. Cash flow fell from $48.6 billion in the first quarter to $21.3 billion in the second.

The CFO said Nvidia plans to return 50% or more of free cash flow, versus 60% so far this year. In July, it held $56.6 billion in cash and debt securities, plus $42.8 billion in listed stock stakes, and sold $25 billion of bonds in June.

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Post #6530 1.78K
AI token pricing is collapsing, while usage is exploding as reasoning models and agents consume far more tokens per task.

That should drive more AI usage across $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META and $AMZN. $NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO power the compute stack, while $MU and $SKHY supply memory.

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Post #6529 1.6K
Fair Isaac is down 64% from its highs. This is the backside of concentration. $FICO

When a fund's largest holding moves against it, investors will surely leave. Fund management is tough.

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Post #6528 1.84K
Nano Banc became the 6th US bank to fail in 2026.

Over 25% of its loans went bad, mostly tied to commercial real estate.

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Post #6527 1.92K
A $10,000 investment a decade ago produced:

🖱️ Nvidia, $1,355,800.

🖱️ AMD, $964,300.

🖱️ Sterling, $684,000.

🖱️ Micron, $601,300.

🖱️ Comfort Systems, $570,300.

🖱️ Arista, $383,200.

🖱️ Celestica, $350,400.

Nvidia was the clear leader.

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Post #6526 2.16K
📊 Risk Types

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Post #6525 2.16K
What “Smart Money” bought last quarter.

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Post #6524 2.26K
Top investing books.

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Post #6523 2.44K
📊 A Narrow Market Beneath the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, but almost half of its stocks are moving differently from the index. Goldman says the divergence resembles the Tech Bubble.

Market concentration is driving the gap. The 10 largest stocks account for around 40% of the S&P 500, and many are benefiting from the AI boom. Their size can lift the index even as broader participation weakens.

The rest of the market is facing higher bond yields, $100+ oil, a stronger dollar, and higher borrowing costs. Record levels in the S&P 500 do not mean most stocks are performing well.

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Post #6522 2.41K
🚀 SpaceX President Sells $52.55M

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president, sold $52.55M of $SPCX.

She has run daily operations since 2008, shares sold for $151-$155 each.

342,170 shares sold across 5 transactions on Sept 22, she still holds $366M in $SPCX.

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Post #6521 2.61K
⚠️ AI Risk Claims Face Investor Skepticism

Sam Altman and Dario Amodei told the UN Security Council that AI could be “a risk to humanity as a whole” and warned that we could “lose control of the future to AI.” Ten days earlier, Michael Burry called the message self-serving hype.

🖱️ LLMs are not AI and will not become AGI, so there is nothing to slow down.

🖱️ Competition is arriving quickly, which could reduce the benefits for incumbents.

🖱️ IPO candidates need hype. Saying “we are so awesome it could become dangerous” fits that pattern.

🖱️ The warnings may also provide cover for slowing growth if planned IPOs are pushed out.

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Post #6520 2.41K
🆗 BNP Raises NBIS Price Target

BNP upgraded NBIS to Outperform and raised its price target to $399, modeling $22B+ in exit 2027 ARR as AI cloud pricing moves toward $40M/MW.

With Meta and Microsoft largely ramped by early 2027, BNP sees a sharp reset higher in incremental-capacity economics, with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin adding another leg of upside.

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Post #6519 2.47K
"Those who keep learning will keep rising in life."

Charlie Munger

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Post #6518 2.69K
📉 10-Year Yield at 2007 High

The 10-year bond yield is at its highest level since July 2007.

Three months later, the global financial crisis began, and the Nasdaq fell 56% over the next 16 months.

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Post #6517 2.65K
Palantir crossed $190 for the first time in a year.

$PLTR is up 669% since Jim Simons disclosed a $21M stake. He opened it in Q2 2021.

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Post #6516 2.65K
“The greatest investors make large concentrated bets where they have a lot of conviction.” - Stanley Druckenmiller.

There’s a fine line between confident and overconfident. Positions should be large enough to capture opportunity, small enough to keep you in the game.

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Post #6515 2.75K
🇨🇳 China’s Gold Demand Surges

China spent nearly $160 billion on gold in the last 8 months, even as prices reached $5,595 this year.

The government sees gold as a safe store of funds with no counterparty risk. Domestic investors are also turning to it as real estate and stocks struggle, while the 10-year bond yield is just 1.67%.

China imported more than 1,000 tonnes this year, exceeding its entire 2025 volume. Demand shows no sign of fading.

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Post #6514 2.52K
NVIDIA director Mark Stevens sold nearly $947M in $NVDA shares in under a month.

🖱️ Aug 31-Sep 2: Sold $410.8M in $NVDA shares.

🖱️ Sep 4: Sold an additional $235.6M in $NVDA shares.

🖱️ Sep 18: Sold an additional $300M in shares.

Stevens has held a board seat since 2008 and still holds $6.3B in $NVDA.

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