think this is basically the continuation of that post above ^

imo a lot of the cycle winners are already sitting right in front of us, and from here the edge probably becomes less about finding some random new 50k mc coin before everyone else and more about accumulating the obvious winners before the market eventually reprices them much, much higher. we still haven’t even seen a meme / memefi coin from this cycle properly break 1b yet (not even 500M), which is kinda insane when you think about how bullish everyone supposedly is. if this really becomes the kind of market i think it will, then a lot of ppl are still massively underestimating what the terminal valuations of the strongest coins can look like. raise your targets

the annoying part is that identifying the winner is only half the trade. actually holding it is probably harder. there’s always another shiny new narrative, another token that looks like it can do 10x before yours does 2x. taking profits to rotate into those is completely fine and i’ll still do it, but i’m increasingly thinking the best way to trade this market is to treat your highest conviction winners almost like principal / stablecoins and rotate around them instead of constantly nuking the entire position. that’s probably how i’ll trade $MARSCOIN from here, and tbh i’d think similarly about things like $CATECOIN, $AI, $ANSEM, $PONS etc. not saying they all go to 1b or that nothing can invalidate the thesis, just that if you genuinely believe you found one of the winners, you should probably give the fucking trade enough time to actually become one

“early not wrong” has basically been my karma forever. i’ve had what i now think was the right thesis on multiple coins that became obvious winners later and still managed to sell them very early. and tbh it doesn’t really make me mad anymore because i know this will happen another 1000 times. unless you already have millions and numbers barely affect you anymore, or you somehow enter a coma and wake up a week later with 7 figs sitting in your wallet, it’s almost impossible for the human brain to watch an amount of money that can materially change your life appear on a screen and not want to secure it

that’s probably the biggest thing i’m trying to improve rn. not becoming some murad who never sells anything because that’s equally retarded, but becoming comfortable enough with volatility that i don’t kill a good thesis just because the pnl temporarily became uncomfy. i’m in a way better position today than i was 3 months ago, and that gives me the luxury to actually take that risk on a few trades. with $MARSCOIN for example, maybe i roundtrip a disgusting amount of unrealized profit. maybe the thesis fails and i end up losing money. obviously possible. but if you think you found something with asymmetric upside and multiple ways to win, at some point you also have to ask yourself: why dont you take a chance?

and zooming out i still see basically zero reason to believe the broader opportunity is over. majors are still practically closed to bottoms, the market has barely had a real expansion phase, social trading is just starting to exist at scale and a cycle cannot seriously be compressed into one month of random onchain pumps. if anything i think we’re still in the phase where ppl are conditioned by years of chop to sell every pump because they assume abundance can’t last. eventually that reflex gets punished too.

ofc none of this means straight up. there will be disgusting corrections, probably multiple ones, and some of the “obvious winners” today will absolutely turn out to be wrong. the hard part is knowing when something is actually broken vs when you’re just getting shaken out of a good trade

can you sit on your hands anon?

godspeed, stay holy