Re: Why isn't the industry freaking out about DeepSeek 4.1 Flash?

> do they plan to increase production? No.

Micron has 3 brand new fabs currently under construction, 2 Boise, 1 in New York as the first of 4 planned for a campus.

Plus expanding other existing facilities.

These things take ~3-5 years from breaking ground to full production. You'd have had to anticipate the current demand years before it happened in order to be bringing production on-line before 2030 or so.

Samsung and HK Hynix also have fabs under construction and planned.

CXMT started 11 years ago and only now is reaching any real volume. If they decided a year ago to react to the current demand cycle they'd be 6-7 years out.

Not much you can really do to wish for more fabrication to exist on any timeline not measured in fractional decades.

Could they do more and react quicker? Probably, but everything I've read on the subject seems to point to 3 years is absolute bare minimum if you happen to have a shovel ready project with the land bought, local permitting completed, infrastructure extended to the site, and a skilled workforce already in place. They could suspend buy-backs/dividends today and dump it all into building production and there would be no material impact until around 2030.

> The Micron CEO just recently said this is the exact plan

CEO simply stated the demand pressure will not go away through 2027, and supply will not increase until around 2028 when currently under construction fabs start shipping volume. The article does not support your statement.

phil21, 8 hours ago