This February I made a prediction that AI would surpass top human performers in competitive programming by the end of the summer.

For context, at that point, the best models we had were o1, Sonnet 3.6, and Gemini 2.0. They couldn't reliably solve even simple tasks, and the only hint we had was the late-December preview of o3 (which eventually turned out to be a different version from what we got in April). This "o3-preview", when benchmarked on Codeforces contests, ranked in the 99.8th percentile, which is extremely good, but it was still far behind top performers, positioned at about ~130th place.

In the past couple of months, Google and OpenAI have been showing off their experimental reasoning models' skills by participating in various math and coding olympiads. Just today, they both posted about their results at ICPC, which is the most prestigious competitive programming olympiad, where university students from different countries participate in teams of 3.

Google's system solved 10/12 problems, which is enough for a gold medal already. And OpenAI got a stunning 12/12, which is even more than the top-1 team from Saint Petersburg solved. Basically, AI could solve all those extremely difficult problems given the same time and constraints as human contestants, and actually achieved first place, which I think can count as a successful resolution to my prediction.

Even earlier, in December, I made a more general prediction for 2025, saying that 1. AI would surpass humans in different technical fields (mostly meaning math/coding); and 2. AI would discover a lot of new science.

We still can't say that AI has "surpassed" humans in all those things, and it's actually quite hard to define that outcome. And AI hasn't discovered much this year either, but I think with these recent results in various olympiads we're definitely getting there very quickly. Overall, I still believe in those timings, and the general timing for ASI in 2027, or even earlier.