Glassnode

Bitcoin currently sees around $46.4 billion in on-chain volume daily, comparable to traditional payment processors like Visa and Mastercard. Filtered economical transfer volumes are closer to $6.5 billion per day.

Discover more insights from our report with CME Group → https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx

The Week On-Chain 29, 2024
The Bitcoin market recently absorbed over 48k BTC in sell-side sourced from the German Government. With Mt Gox distributions also on the horizon, we examine these major sell-side forces, as well as the role ETFs have on price action.

Executive Summary
- Large labelled entities currently hold approximately 4.9M BTC, which is equivalent to 25% of the circulating supply. Amongst these entities, centralized exchanges and ETF custodians account for the largest portion.
- Following the complete exhaustion of BTC sell-side by the German Government, there appears to be near-term sell-side relief, as well as renewed inflows of demand to support the market.
- Market profitability remains remarkably robust, with the majority of the coin supply still held at a favourable cost basis, and below the current spot price.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

The Bitcoin market experienced around 18 months of steady price appreciation after the collapse of FTX, followed by three months of range-bound price action after the $73k ETF high.

Between May and July, the market experienced its deepest cycle correction, recording a drawdown exceeding -26% from the ATH.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇 https://glassno.de/3zBT1b6

Since the launch of the Runes protocol on April 20, 2024, we've observed a significant surge in transactions, largely displacing BRC-20 tokens, Ordinals, and Inscriptions. As of current, Runes-related TXs account for an impressive 66% of total daily TXs.

Explore our latest Runes metrics to gain deeper insights into this trend 👇
https://glassno.de/3xTL6oY

Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%) over the same period.

Discover more insights from our report with CME Group → https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx

The Week On-Chain 28, 2024
Following several months of sideways price action, Bitcoin has experienced its deepest correction since late 2022, trading below the 200DMA, and putting a significant number of Short-Term Holders into an unrealized loss.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has recorded its deepest drawdown for the current cycle, trading more than -26% below the ATH. Despite this, the drawdown remains historically shallow relative to past cycles.
- This price contraction has put a significant volume of Short-Term Holder Supply into an unrealized loss, with over 2.8M BTC now underwater based on their on-chain acquisition price.
- Whilst financial pressure is elevated amongst Short-Term Holders, the magnitude of losses locked in has remained relatively subdued in comparison to the market size.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Introducing the guide to Digital Assets: Insights and Market Trends by CME Group and Glassnode

The report provides institutional investors with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum fundamentals, capital flows, market cycles, derivatives markets, and institutional adoption.

Key takeaways:

- Major Asset Dominance: Bitcoin's market cap increased by $1.13 trillion (+370%) since November 2022, and Ethereum's valuation rose by $354 billion (+267%).

- Settlement Volume: Bitcoin's daily on-chain volume is around $46.4 billion, comparable to Visa and Mastercard, with filtered volumes at $6.5 billion.

- Bull Market Correction: Bitcoin's deepest correction since November 2022 was -20.3%.

- ETH/BTC Ratio: The declining ratio indicates shifting market dynamics, with more institutional buy-side pressure on Bitcoin.

- CME Futures Dominance: CME futures represent over 80% of the calendar futures market for Bitcoin and 53% for Ethereum.

For the full analysis, download the guide here: https://glassno.de/3XPCQkx

Assessing the ratio between the Bitcoin unrealized profit/loss per coin, we can see that the magnitude of paper gains held is 8.2x larger than paper losses.

Only 18% of trading days have recorded a larger relative value, all of which are within Euphoric bull market regimes.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej

Moving towards technical indicators, we can use the widely used Mayer Multiple metric, which assesses the ratio between Bitcoin price and its 200DMA.

The 200DMA is often used as a simple indicator for assessing bullish or bearish momentum, making any breaks above or below a key market pivot point.

The 200DMA currently resides at a value of $58k, once again providing confluence with on–chain price models.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/4cOHEej

The Week On-Chain 27, 2024
The Bitcoin market is in an interesting spot, with the average coin still up 2x, whilst most Short-Term Holders are underwater. A multitude of volatility measures are also heavily compressed, suggesting a larger move is on the horizon.

Executive Summary
- Despite Bitcoin prices trading sideways to down, a significant proportion of the market remains in profit, with Short-Term Holders carrying the majority of losses.
- Using a combination of on-chain pricing models and technical indicators, we define and explore the a set of potential scenarios for the market moving forwards.
- Volatility continues to be historically compressed, which suggests a degree of both investor apathy, but also suggests an under-indexing for heightened volatility ahead.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Glassnode's Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Short is designed to identify prime shorting opportunities with high conviction. It can be used for direct short positions on Bitcoin and to reduce long-only exposure, minimizing downside risk during high-risk periods.

Benefits:

- High-Confidence Short Opportunities: Identify market downturns using our machine-learning model and on-chain data.
- Risk Management for Long-Only Investors: Effectively manage Bitcoin's high volatility and avoid significant drawdowns.
- Strategic Hedging: Suitable for both direct short positions and reducing long-only exposure.

For the full analysis, read our insights article: https://glassno.de/3ztvNUk

The Week On-Chain 26, 2024
As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim the recent ATH, we investigate the Long and Short-Term cohorts contribution to the supply and demand side. We also leverage the new breakdown metrics to evaluate the spending behavior and market influence of differing subsets of Long-Term investors.

Executive Summary
- The market has effectively traded sideways since the $73k all-time-high which was set in March. By our estimates, demand momentum has turned negative since early May.
- We analyse the cost-basis of short-term investors as a method to inspect capital flows into the market.
- Looking at the spending behaviour of long-term holders, it can be seen that although the spent volume by these players constitutes only 4%-8% of the total volume, the profits realized from this spending typically account for 30%-40% of cumulative profits realized over bull markets.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Despite healthy investor profitability, the magnitude of volume being processed and transferred on the Bitcoin Network following the ATH has declined drastically.

This underscores a reduced appetite for speculation and heightened indecision in the market.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RCgSxp

The Week On-Chain 25, 2024
Despite choppy price action, the unrealized profit of Bitcoin investors remains constructive. However, volumes across all market facets are declining markedly as an equilibrium between demand and sell-side forces is established.

Executive Summary
- Despite chaotic price action, investor profitability remains robust, with the average coin holding an unrealized profit of around 120%.
- The demand side has been sufficient to absorb sell-side pressure and HODLer divestment but insufficient to promote further upward growth.
- The cash-and-carry trade continues, with a particular uptick by institutional traders, reinforcing an expectation of range-bound trading for the time being.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Coinbase as an entity holds a vast fraction of both aggregate exchange balances, as well the US Spot ETF balances via its custody service.

The Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Custody entities currently hold an estimated 270k and 569k BTC respectively.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93

The aggregated balance of all major labelled entities is estimated to be ~4.23M, which accounts for 27% of the overall adjusted circulating supply (which is the total supply minus coins that have remained dormant for more than seven years).

🟡 US Spot ETF = 862k BTC
🔴 Mt. Gox Trustee = 141k BTC
🔵 US Government = 207k BTC
🟠 All Exchanges = 2.3M BTC
🟢 Miners (Exc. Patoshi) = 706k BTC

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3RnjM93

The Week On-Chain 24, 2024
Despite impressive US ETF inflows, a market-neutral Cash-and-Carry trade appears to be subduing buy-side pressure, requiring non-arbitrage demand to further stimulate price action. Alongside this, we explore the divergence between declining active addresses and surging transaction counts.

Executive Summary
- In the advent of the Runes protocol, a counterintuitive divergence has formed between declining active addresses and increasing transaction counts.
- Major labelled entities now hold a staggering ~4.23M BTC, accounting for over 27% of the adjusted supply, with US Spot ETFs now commanding a balance of 862k BTC.
- The Cash-and-Carry trade structure appears to be a meaningful source of ETF inflow demand, with the ETFs being utilized as the instrument for obtaining the long spot exposure, whilst an increasingly large net short position for Bitcoin accrues in the CME Group futures market.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

In the newest release from our checklist series, we focus on recognizing important stages of bull markets—ideal for optimizing exit strategies. Utilizing our innovative suite of on-chain metrics, this checklist equips traders with the tools necessary to navigate through and capitalize on euphoric market phases.

To learn more, download the checklist here: https://glassno.de/4caTI9i

Assessing for Bitcoin Long-Term Holders, we can see that the total volume of LTH Supply held in loss is negligible, with only 4.9k BTC (0.03% of LTH Supply) acquired above the spot price.

Given new ATHs were only set in March (less than 155-days ago), these LTH coins in loss are the small few holders who bought the 2021 cycle top, and have held ever since.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇
glassno.de/3VbNYW0

Whilst both inflowing liquidity and appetite for speculation have slowed down over the last 2 months, the reclamation of the $68k level has driven a majority of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder cohort back into holding an unrealized profit.

This indicates that despite recent sideways choppy price action, the majority of recent buyers now have a cost basis which is more favourable and below the current spot price.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3VbNYW0