Glassnode

Capital tends to flow into the digital asset market primarily via three assets; #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, and #Stablecoins. With stablecoins proliferating in recent years, and becoming a dominant quote pair, we can use the relative flow of funds between these assets to gauge aggregate market demand.

In our latest video report, we cover the shifting tides of capital flows:
- Review the Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear dashboard.
- Use aggregate capital flow metrics to assess macro demand.
- Assess the relative balance between stablecoins and the majors.
- Shifting dominance that helps establish a view over the risk curve.

Visit our Capital Rotation dashboard for a full set of charts covered in this weeks video report.

The latest edition of The Week On-chain newsletter is live.

We introduce and establish a set of tools we can use to assess sentiment and market positioning in Uniswap Liquidity Pools.

Executive Summary
- Event driven volatility has re-entered digital assets markets in recent weeks, with notable indicators of aggregate capital outflows flagged leading into it.
- Derivative markets show a continual outflow of liquidity, particularly across ETH futures suggesting capital continues to move higher up the risk curve to relative safety.
- We deep dive into how Uniswap liquidity pools have many similarities to options markets, with Liquidity Providers expressing a view on both volatility, and price levels.

Read more in the latest edition of The Week On-chain newsletter.

🚀 Glassnode's Chart of the Week is here! Dive into the aftermath of the Grayscale legal victory against the SEC and discover the Realized Loss Momentum tool to spot market inflection points. Why has the market given up all its gains? Should investors brace for more downside? Equip yourself with the latest on-chain insights and stay ahead of the curve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LiMcMcEMR0

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on evaluating risk in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges:
- The Measure of Liquidity Reliance ratio aims to gauge an exchange's level of dependency by looking at 30-day flows to/from another exchange relative to its balance.
- A higher Exchange Reliance Ratio may suggest increased counterparty risk, a consideration that could be especially relevant for smaller exchanges.
- Sudden shifts in the ratio might act as early warning signs, as likely indicated by Alameda's influence on FTX's outflows in June 2022.
Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://youtu.be/Z62l6dtB5rQ

The latest Week On-Chain Video is live! This session focuses on assessing risk in centralized crypto exchanges:

- Exchanges remain the centrepiece of the digital asset industry, where the vast majority of trade takes place.
- Our assessment, based on entity-adjusted data, indicates that 54% of the economical on-chain volume for Bitcoin is related to either exchange deposits or withdrawals.
- Drawing insights from the lessons of the FTX collapse, we introduce three metrics to pinpoint unusual exchange activity: the Reshuffling Ratio, the Reliance Ratio, and the Whale Withdrawal Ratio."
- Using this exchange risk framework, we assess Binance, Coinbase, Huobi and FTX to provide an overview of various exchange on-chain behaviors.

Find out more in the latest Week On-Chain 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2aWvbiwOTo

With hindsight and lessons learned from FTX, the monitoring of exchange related risks is a critical component of digital asset risk management.

In our latest report, we develop three indicators which help highlight periods of heightened counter party risk. We analyse the top four assets BTC, ETH, USDC and USDT, across four case study exchanges; Binance, Coinbase, Huobi and FTX.

Read more in The Week On-chain

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we take a closer look at the Bitcoin options market, providing insights into last week's flash crash:

- Implied volatility was historically low before the crash, leaving the market unprepared for sudden price movements.
- Despite the chaos, options open interest remained stable, showing no mass panic and minimal forced deleveraging. This contrasts sharply with the $2.5B mass deleveraging observed in the futures market.
- The options market wasn't the primary catalyst for the sell-off, but it did adjust quickly, with volatility and delta skew rising significantly.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gqEuv96H2k

We are proud to Introduce Cointime Economics, a new framework to analyse the #Bitcoin economy, developed in collaboration with ARKInvest. This novel framework establishes a new suite of analysis tools, 30+ new metrics, and improved valuation and pricing models.

We build upon the pioneering work by Tamás Blummer, who discovered the Liveliness and HODLed and Lost coins metrics in 2018. We progress these concepts, exploring how units of coin-time can provide an elegant and detailed perspective into the dynamics of the #Bitcoin economy.

Cointime Economics opens the door on several groundbreaking innovations:
- Efficient tools to discount lost and long-dormant supply.
- Improved economic calculations which isolate active investors.
- Superior estimates of the market cost basis and mean reversion models.
- Cointime derived valuation and pricing models applicable to all digital assets.

Cointime Economics comes in two parts and a live charting suite:
- Part I by ARK-Invest which is an overview whitepaper for investors
- Part II by Glassnode which is a deep breakdown of the framework from first principles for analysts
- Live chart suite available within Glassnode Studio

We have also prepared a video overview and blog post, both covering the key innovations as a primer.

The latest edition of The Week On-chain video report is live.

In this edition, we cover:
- Range and expansion and how higher volatility has finally arrived.
- A deleveraging in futures markets appears to be the main catalyst.
- On-chain indicators suggest there is a risk of being ‘top-heavy’.
- Deep dive into Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Momentum.

Full details in our latest video analysis report.

#Bitcoin bulls were caught off guard last week with the largest sell-off in 2023 sending $BTC below $25k. A deleveraging in futures markets is the likely catalyst, however a bigger concern may be the 88.3% of Short-Term Holder supply now held in an unrealized loss.

In this edition, we analyse the #Bitcoin sell-off across four key areas of interest:

- Key pricing models lost as support
- Options markets repricing volatility
- Futures market deleveraging
- Spot markets being top-heavy

To close, we introduce a new on-chain #Bitcoin indicator designed to monitor inflection points in investor sentiment, positioning and trends. This tool is experimental, however is very responsive when the market is top-heavy and price sensitive.

Read more in the latest edition of The Week On-chain

Introducing Glassnode Clips: Digestible, bite-sized answers to your burning crypto questions. This week? A deep dive into Bitcoin's Realized Cap Breakdown:

- Bitcoin's realized cap serves as an essential tool in assessing capital flows; upward trends signal net inflows into the asset, while downtrends point to net outflows.
- Analyzing the 2023 data reveals a clear inverse relationship between short-term and long-term holders, especially evident during the notable February dip at 19.8k.
- Observing the market behavior, after witnessing short-term holders anchoring during lows, it's evident they are now operating speculatively, while long-term holders stand as the market's stable pillars.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufFTwh6COPA

The Bitcoin market has reached a stage of extreme apathy and exhaustion, with volatility measures and several key on-chain indicators reaching all-time-low readings. With the market being somewhat top-heavy, we assess how investors are responding to the boredom.


In the latest Week On-chain edition, we assess:
- The digital asset market which continues trading within a historically low volatility regime, with several metrics indicating extreme apathy and exhaustion has been reached in the $29k to $30k range.
- There are some indicators that the market is slightly ‘top-heavy’ as indicated by the concentration of Short-Term Holder supply and cost basis around the current spot price.
- We explore several new iterations of SOPR by age band as a tool to monitor profit taking behavior by various cross sections of the market.

In our video WoC report, we also deep dive into how we can use the concept of Hot Supply and Single Cycle HODLers to track profit taking behavior during uptrends and rallies.

The latest Week On-Chain is now live! In this report we focus on:

- Bitcoin prices are infamously volatile, however the market is currently experiencing an extreme volatility compression. Fewer than 5% of trading days have a tighter trade range.

- Futures markets are notably flat, with trade volumes for BTC and ETH both probing all-time-lows, and cash-and-carry yields of 5.3% just slightly above the risk free rate.

- Implied volatility in options markets is undergoing a significant volatility crush, with volatility premiums trading at less than half the 2021-22 baseline.

- Both the put/call ratio, and the 25-delta skew metrics are at all-time-lows, suggesting options markets favour calls, and put options have priced in very light volatility ahead.

Find out more in the latest Week On-Chain👇🏼
https://glassno.de/3OmRCsF

The latest Glassnode report is now live; Mastering the Realized Cap Part 1. In this session we focus on:

- The fundamentals and construction of the Realized Cap.

- Understanding the power of Realized Profit and Loss metrics.

- Analysing derivative metrics from the Realized Cap.

- Building market cycle tooling using the priciples covered.

Watch more in our latest Week On-chain video report

The latest Week On-Chain video report is now live! In this session we focus on:

- Analyzing the fund flows attributed to top #Bitcoin exchanges in the US and Asia regions

- Identifying periods of demand expansion (or contraction) using the concept of ‘hot supply’,

- Evaluating the shift in psychology across the Short-Term Holder cohort in 2023

Get the latest insights in this video👇🏼

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np4-1gizCG0

With a gold rush of applications for a #Bitcoin ETF filed this week, a key question is how many Bitcoin are active and available for sale?

In this report, we try to measure the available supply and assess how demand impacted valuations in past cycles.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain.

Volatility, volumes, and realized values are at multi-year lows, indicating that Bitcoin investor apathy is firmly in play.

However, under the surface, HODLers continue their classic slow and steady accumulation, with the halving now less than 1yr away.

To find out more, please read the latest Week On-Chain.

The US regulatory environment continues hostilities this week, with the SEC charging #Binance and #Coinbase for securities violations.

In this edition, we assess the investor response from the lens of exchange inflows, and which investor cohorts panicked, and which stayed calm.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain.

We are delighted to announce the launch of our new monthly newsletter, Finance Bridge!

It provides institutional investors with a unique, data-driven perspective on the dynamics driving the cryptocurrency market.

The highlights from this edition are:

Market Momentum: Our indicators suggest that the market may have moved beyond a bottom formation phase and may be on its way to recovery, in spite of occasional price fluctuations.

Risk Vectors: The upcoming Mt. Gox Bitcoin distributions and the movements of US Government-held Bitcoin could emerge as significant catalysts for market volatility.

On-Chain Basics: Understanding Payload, this metric refers to the actual value of transactions being moved on the Bitcoin network. Tracking this metric allows investors to gauge the true adoption and usage of Bitcoin.

Read the first edition here: https://glassno.de/3NiK6jc

In the world of #Bitcoin & digital assets, reliable data is the cornerstone of an effective decision-making process.

In our upcoming webinar we show you how Point-in-Time metrics can help in creating better trading strategies and managing risks.

Save your seat: https://glassno.de/42p7sbk