Glassnode

Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for

Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024.

This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction.

📉 http://glassno.de/btc-active-addresses

Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection.

While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%.

Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore.

Quoting @glassnode:
Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week.

Our latency probes caught the switch live:

Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms
Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms

A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo.

👉 http://latency.glassnode.com/cex

Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.

Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data.

x402 pays per call: from your Coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents (live today), or any USDC wallet via Base MCP.

Try: "Pull Glassnode's MVRV and NUPL for BTC and tell me if the market is overheated"

https://glassno.de/451fVoR

Watch on X

$BTC has slipped to $62.6k as spot demand remains weak and derivatives stay defensive. Stronger on-chain activity, resilient holders and ETF inflows offer support, but conviction remains muted.

Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

An extreme day for $BTC: As the Coldcard hack news broke on Friday, eight on-chain metrics printed values well above their two-year median.

The data indicates holders are migrating their coins to new wallets rather than sending to exchanges

https://glassno.de/4g6zy54

Three-month futures basis has paid less than a 2-year Treasury since February.

Only one other stretch on record has run this long: August 2022 into January 2023. It ended at the cycle low.

This also directly impacts depth and volumes across the market.

https://glassno.de/3REiIkJ

The dollar has been rallying since May, and $BTC is taking it worse than almost any dollar rally on record.

Across every dollar rally since 2015, $BTC showed significantly more relative strength.

A flip of this relationship would be a positive signal

https://glassno.de/4c8YqXl

$BTC has slipped back to $62.6K, unwinding much of July’s rebound and returning to the lower end of its range. Yet options positioning is rebuilding while implied volatility remains subdued, signalling continued market complacency.

Short-dated ATM volatility has fallen sharply, with 1-week IV near 34% versus ~42% at six months. The steepening term structure signals muted near-term risk, but persistent uncertainty further out.
https://glassno.de/4pLcTOQ

Call OI has rebounded to ~$23B while put OI sits near ~$11B, pulling the put/call ratio towards 0.5. Positioning remains call-heavy, signalling stronger upside participation than demand for protection.
https://glassno.de/4fxt3bd

Bitcoin options open interest has rebuilt to ~$34B from June’s ~$25B low as BTC recovered towards $65K. Positioning is returning, but remains below 2025 peaks, signalling renewed engagement without excessive leverage.
https://glassno.de/4pQvcCt

Wrap-up:
Positioning has rebuilt, but volatility markets remain notably relaxed despite renewed price weakness. Call-side OI dominates, while low DVOL suggests traders are still pricing limited near-term movement.

This bear market is 49% deep. Every prior one bottomed far below that.

By depth, it is the mildest on record so far. By the clock it isn't finished: prior bear markets ran about 1/3 longer before reaching the lows

See more in our report "Paid to Wait"

The market has gone very quiet: spot volumes, exchange flows, and vols are sitting at the extremes.

Meanwhile treasuries have out-yielded the crypto carry trade for only the second time on record.

Read the full Week on Chain Report "Paid to Wait" here