Glassnode

#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS

These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k.

A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort.

📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv

Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation.

Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.

📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT

Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October.

Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike.

📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc

Yesterday, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of –$93M, highlighting rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.

📈https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5

The Week On-Chain 43, 2025
Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through.
- The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K).
- Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.
- Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging.
- The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

#BTC Futures are still seeing muted activity following the historic wipeout on 10/10.
Open Interest is still ±30% off the highs, and Funding is close to neutral.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nEmUek

The bounce from $107k coincided with US Spot ETF netflows turning positive. However, inflows remain <1k BTC/day, significantly lower than >2.5k BTC/day seen at the start of major rallies this cycle.

Demand is recovering, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.

📈 https://glassno.de/4htoZIg

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows support near $111K and heavy supply around $117K.
This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.
🔗https://glassno.de/3WXsmOb

#Bitcoin is stabilizing as sell pressure eases and profitability improves, but muted activity and selective participation suggest a cautious, rangebound market until major demand steps in.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/47aJrdz

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator continues to sit near cycle lows, indicating ample stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin. Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns.

🔗https://glassno.de/4osY1n7

A hallmark of bull markets is a low Relative Unrealized Loss, typically <5%. This metric tracks the USD loss of all coins currently underwater, normalized by market cap.

The current bull market has held this structure since November 2023, making it more persistent than the equivalent phases in the last two cycles.

🔗 https://glassno.de/3L8BbSI

#BTC Options Weekly

The BTC options market keeps expanding fast, shaping how traders price risk and volatility. Reading implied volatility, skew, and options flows helps spot shifts in sentiment before price reacts.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows, which have often clustered around local market lows as sentiment unwinds.
When flows stabilize or turn positive, it has historically aligned with renewed demand and the early stages of trend recovery.

🔗https://glassno.de/42XGsml