Glassnode

US spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant inflows of +286k ETH last week, one of the strongest weekly prints since launch. Despite ETH closing the week near $4.4k, institutional demand via ETFs remains firm.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +3,018 BTC last week. This marked a return to positive flows after the prior week of outflows, bringing renewed support despite choppy price action around $108k.

No altcoin sector outperformed ETH over the past month, though DeFi and Layer 2 came close. Notably, most altcoin sectors ended the period in decline.

Studying total daily USDT transfer volume on Ethereum, shows a clear pattern since the cycle low: each major BTC rally triggered a >250% surge in USDT activity, followed by a cooldown phase as BTC slipped into downward consolidation.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/41tDxkA

ETH option skews rotated quickly over the past week.

• Aug 22: upside bias (calls richer, 1w -7%).
• Aug 25: defensive shift (puts richer, 1w +4%).
• Aug 28: neutral (~0% across tenors).

Traders rapidly repriced ETH risk from upside to downside and back to balance.

Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.

MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.

Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.

The Relative Unrealized Loss of BTC investors sits at just 0.5% - far from the >30% levels typical of bear market extremes. This reinforces that most holders remain in profit, despite growing short-term stress.

Bitcoin trades below the $113.6k and $115.6k cost basis of the 1M and 3M cohorts. With short-term holders under water, rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.

Bitcoin is holding above a dense supply cluster between $93k and $110k. This accumulation zone has steadily matured since Dec 2024 and could form a floor - unless sustained sell pressure drives a capitulation event.

The Week On-Chain 34, 2025
Bitcoin trades near $111k, testing key support at $107k–$108.9k. A bounce to $113.6k may face selling from stressed holders, while deeper losses could target $93k–$95k. Losses remain shallow, with spot demand neutral and perpetuals leaning bearish but fragile.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has pulled back to $111k, with support anchored by the $93k–$110k cost basis cluster. A break below $107k–$108.9k could open downside toward $93k–$95k.
- Short-term holders remain under stress, making $113.6k a likely resistance as they sell into any bounce.
- Unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, far from past bear extremes, suggesting limited capitulation so far.
- Spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish, with funding rates signalling fragile neutrality.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Network Activity Slowing

The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in on-chain demand.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/45SYtTk

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.

Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1σ band) - the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history.

Last week, institutional investors broke the multi-week run of inflows into US spot ETH ETFs with -105K ETH in net outflows. However, this week opened on a positive note, with +16.9K ETH added to positions yesterday.

Bitcoin’s rally over the weekend to $117k quickly reversed, leaving the market fragile.

This week’s Market Pulse examines the shift from euphoria toward caution, across spot, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain activity.

Read it here: https://glassno.de/3HU2QWa