$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇
$BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed.
https://glassno.de/4z8hejG
$BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists.
https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B
BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot.
https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX
Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active.
https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb
Wrap up:
$BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.
Post #1863
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