BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases.

Executive Summary
– US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks
Shallow drawdown – Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds
– Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions
– Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range)
– Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks
– Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices
– Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower
– Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K

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