The Week On-Chain 5, 2026
The #BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk.

Executive Summary
- BTC has confirmed a decisive breakdown, with price slipping below key structural support levels and keeping market participants firmly on the defensive.

- On-chain profitability has sharply deteriorated, with MVRV Z-Score compressing to its lowest level since Oct 2022, signalling a major reset in unrealised gains.

- Realised losses are accelerating, with sustained sell pressure suggesting many holders are being forced to exit at a loss as downside momentum persists.

- Spot volume remains structurally weak, reinforcing a demand vacuum where sell-side flows are not being met with meaningful absorption.

- Futures markets have entered a forced deleveraging phase, with the largest long liquidation spikes of the drawdown amplifying volatility and downside continuation.

- Demand from major allocators has softened materially, as ETF and treasury-linked netflows fade and fail to provide the consistent bid seen during prior expansion phases.

Options markets continue to price elevated downside risk, with volatility staying bid and skew steepening as traders pay up for protection.

- With leverage being flushed but spot demand still absent, the market remains vulnerable, and any relief rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-reversing.


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