The Week On-Chain 1, 2026
Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range.

- A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume.

- Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural.

- US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement.

-The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression.

- Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range.

- Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation.

- Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking.

- Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion.


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