The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.



Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter