The Week On-Chain 41, 2025
Bitcoin’s rally to $126k reversed amid macro stress and a $19B futures wipeout. ETF inflows slowing and volatility spiking, the market enters a reset phase marked by a historic leverage flush.

Executive Summary
-Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high at $126.1k reversed amid macro tensions and a $19B futures deleveraging, one of the largest in history. The drop below the $117k–$114k cost-basis zone placed top buyers in loss and exposed renewed market fragility.
- On-chain data show continued Long-Term Holder distribution since July and weaker ETF inflows (-2.3k BTC this week), indicating fading institutional demand. Meanwhile, spot markets experienced a sharp but orderly sell-off, with Binance-driven selling partially offset by buying on Coinbase.
- Futures markets underwent a historic leverage flush, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio collapsing to multi-month lows and funding rates plunging to 2022 FTX levels, signalling peak fear and forced liquidations.
- In the options market, open interest and volume rebounded quickly, but volatility spiked to 76%, and short-dated skew flipped to +17% put-rich before stabilizing. The market remains in a reset phase, awaiting renewed demand to confirm recovery.



Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter