The Week On-Chain 38, 2025
#Bitcoin shows exhaustion post-FOMC as LTHs realized 3.4M BTC in profit and ETF inflows slowed. With spot and futures weak, $111k STH cost basis is key support or risk downside.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin Correction: Post-FOMC, price action reflects “buy the rumour, sell the news” with fading momentum.
- On-chain: Drawdown mild at 8%, but $678B inflows and 3.4M BTC in LTH profits show major capital rotation.
- ETFs vs LTHs: ETF inflows slowed as LTH distribution accelerated, leaving flows fragile.
- Spot & Futures: Spot volumes spiked, futures deleveraged, and liquidation clusters highlight liquidity risk.
- Options: Skew surged and puts bid, showing defensive positioning as macro signals exhaustion.

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