The Week On-Chain 37, 2025
Bitcoin is above $115.2K with 95% of supply in profit post-FOMC. Futures saw short squeezes, while options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of Sept 26 expiry. Holding $115.2K is key; losing it risks a drop toward $105.5K.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin gained momentum into the Sept 17 FOMC, with derivatives shifting from risk-off to balanced. Spot showed mild sell pressure, while perpetuals absorbed via short squeezes.
- Perpetual OI peaked at 395K BTC before easing to ~380K as volatility flushed leverage.
- Options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of the Sept 26 expiry, with $110K max pain likely to influence spot.
- Volatility repricing lifted the 1M IV–RV spread, while dealer hedging flows support rallies and cushion dips.
- On-chain, BTC trades above $115.2K, cost basis for 95% of supply. Holding is key; losing risks a move toward $105.5K.


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