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Glassnode Glassnode @glassnode · 44.1K subscribers
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The Week On-Chain, Week 10, 2025

Bitcoin continues to face persistent sell pressure, especially from recent buyers. The asset has seen weak demand and fading accumulation since January. Short-term holders are capitulating, driving STH-SOPR into loss territory, mirroring the August 2024 crash to $49k.

Executive Summary

🔸Bitcoin entered a phase of strong investor distribution in early January, with the Accumulation Trend Score confirming persistent sell-side pressure.

🔸Heightened volatility, weak demand, and liquidity constraints have prevented meaningful accumulation from restarting, reinforcing downside risks.

🔸Panic-driven selling has intensified, with STH-SOPR spiking well below the break-even level of 1, signalling fear and loss realization among recent buyers.

🔸A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD metric we developed shows that the intensity of the sell-off mirrors past capitulation events, notably the one in August 2024, as the market plunged to $49k.

Read more in the latest Week On-Chain. Charts here.
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