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The Week On-Chain, Week 4, 2025

The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.

Executive Summary

🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.

🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.

🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.

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